While domestic cotton yarn prices remain firm under the 'golden September and silver October' expectations, overseas yarn offers have quietly turned softer. Since early September, FOB/CNF/CIF quotes from major producers like Vietnam, India, and Pakistan have generally declined, with open-end and coarse ring-spun yarns seeing the largest drops, while C32S and above carded, and medium-to-high count combed yarns adjusted less. This uneven price movement is introducing new variables into the purchasing plans of coastal weaving and fabric enterprises.
Price Divergence: Dual Squeeze of Cost and Demand
The direct driver behind softer overseas quotes is the simultaneous weakening of upstream raw material and logistics costs. Since late August, ICE cotton futures have experienced considerable volatility and correction, coupled with consecutive declines in domestic cotton prices in India and Pakistan in early September, removing the cost support that mills had relied on for holding prices. Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict has caused fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices, again raising shipping and trade costs, and constraining order-taking and exports of cotton products in Southeast Asia. These multiple bearish factors have prompted large-scale mills in Vietnam and India to cut quotes first, with second- and third-tier brands following suit.
Notably, the price cuts are not across the board. Indian JC60S and JC80S, due to limited bonded and afloat positions and firm costs, have remained largely stable. This reflects that the adjustment is more structural than trend-driven—low-count and open-end yarns, with greater demand elasticity and intense competition, have seen deeper cuts, while high-count combed yarns, with concentrated supply and strong customer stickiness, have limited room for negotiation. For buyers, this means current low-price opportunities are mainly in specific categories, not a universal dividend.
Widening Spread: The Cost-Effectiveness Window for Imported Yarn
In contrast to the 'bowing' of imported yarn, domestic yarn has remained 'headstrong.' With the arrival of the traditional peak season, domestic mills have accelerated destocking. Even though Zhengzhou cotton futures and domestic spot cotton prices have fallen, ex-factory yarn prices have not followed suit; some large-scale mills have even raised open-end yarn prices. This divergence has widened the positive spread between landed cost of imported yarn and domestic yarn quotes.
This widening spread has directly shifted the procurement preferences of coastal weaving, fabric, and garment factories. Feedback from Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian indicates that demand for low-to-mid count imported yarn from Vietnam, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh has been recovering, with active spot trading. Among them, Vietnam's OEC10S-21S FOB/CNF quotes are more competitive than those from India, Pakistan, and Indonesia, attracting attention from denim, knitted underwear, knitted fleece, home textile, corduroy, and labor protection product manufacturers.
However, it must be noted that the proportion of short, scattered, and small orders in current export orders remains high. This suggests that the restocking is more 'urgent-order-driven' immediate procurement rather than inventory building based on long-term orders. For import yarn traders, the widening spread offers volume opportunities, but if overseas epidemics or geopolitical situations recur, shipment delays and exchange rate fluctuations could quickly erode profits.
Industrial Transmission: Chain Reaction from Quotes to Production Scheduling
The ripples of overseas price cuts are transmitting deeper along the supply chain. For weaving mills, the enhanced cost-effectiveness of imported yarn helps lower fabric production costs, especially in competitive low-to-mid count standard products, potentially triggering a new round of price adjustments. For domestic yarn mills, although the 'price war' pressure from imported yarn is partially offset by peak-season demand, if overseas quotes continue to weaken, the sustainability of firm domestic yarn prices will be tested.
From a regional industrial belt perspective, denim and knitting clusters in Guangdong and Fujian are highly dependent on imported coarse yarns, and this price reduction directly improves their profit expectations. Meanwhile, home textile and corduroy enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are more concerned about the supply stability of Vietnamese yarn. Notably, quotes from Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries have also fallen. Although their market share is still small, as an emerging supply source, their price movement may offer more options for future procurement.