The divergence between raw material and fabric indices has become the clearest signal in Keqiao market during the golden September period of 2026. The Keqiao textile index shows the overall textile price index at 106.68, down 0.25% month-on-month, while the raw material sub-index rose 0.18% to 94.40. Behind this rise and fall lies a rewriting of profit distribution logic along the chain: upstream has pricing power, midstream fabrics struggle to pass costs down, making weaving the first to bear the squeeze.
Cost Transmission Blocked, Midstream Margins Squeezed from Both Sides
The polyester chain is the main driver of the current raw material uptrend. Rising PTA and ethylene glycol prices have pushed up polyester yarn quotations, with most transactions negotiated individually as sellers avoid long-term contracts. Cotton yarn also edged up, with 32S combed yarn hovering around 25,100 yuan per ton, supported by high cotton prices, yet downstream buying sentiment remains cautious and bulk stockpiling is rare. Viscose yarn weakened, with a wait-and-see atmosphere prevailing. These divergent trends among the three yarn types indicate that downstream demand has not formed a unified expectation.
For weaving and fabric enterprises, cost pressure is twofold. Upstream mills adjust prices frequently, while brand customers have rigid budgets, making it difficult to raise fabric prices correspondingly. This means profit margins in the midstream are continuously compressed, and this squeeze is not short-term—if raw material prices stay high, fabric makers' gross margins will face further pressure. For buyers, this is not the time to lock in long-term contracts; phased procurement and opportunistic replenishment align better with cost control.
Structural Recovery: Differentiated Fabrics Lead, Commodity Products Fall into Price Wars
The golden September did not bring an all-round boom; the market shows clear structural divergence. Grey fabric prices and volumes fell month-on-month, with apparel fabrics splitting into hot and cold categories: wool blends and differentiated chemical fiber fabrics saw strong inquiries and shipments, while plain cotton and ordinary polyester-cotton fabrics traded sluggishly. Autumn/winter demand boosted thick blends, micro-textured, and lightweight functional fabrics. These items share common traits—unique textures or special blend ratios—granting them far stronger pricing power than homogeneous white grey fabrics.
The fragmentation of order structures has exacerbated this divergence. Domestic women's wear brands and e-commerce clients mainly place small-batch, quick-response orders; large orders have significantly shrunk. Most clients start with small trial orders and only reorder after positive market feedback. This model demands high responsiveness from suppliers, but once approved, repurchase stickiness is strong. The home textile segment remained stable, with foreign trade orders picking up, yet overseas buyers are highly sensitive to raw material volatility and strictly control prices, limiting profit margins.
Source Enterprises Proactively Adapt: Full-Chain Adjustments from Materials to Services
Facing raw material fluctuations and fragmented orders, Keqiao textile enterprises are abandoning the old model of volume-based plain grey fabric sales, adjusting simultaneously across procurement, product development, and service models. On the material front, companies adopt batch price-locking strategies to avoid inventory risks from sharp price swings, while strengthening collaboration with upstream yarn mills and prioritizing differentiated blended yarns to build product distinctiveness from the source.
On the product front, R&D upfront has become a consensus. Stores display yarn samples alongside finished garment samples, offering clients complete fabric solutions and shortening decision paths from sampling to ordering. Companies accelerate new product iteration and compress sampling cycles to meet brand clients' quick-response needs. On the channel front, they balance traditional foreign trade with cross-border e-commerce to diversify market risk. The essence of these adjustments is shifting competition from production scale to response speed and product added value.
Outlook: Structural Trends to Persist, Quick Response Becomes Core Barrier
The key variables for the future remain raw material prices and end-consumer demand. If chemical fiber materials stay high, fabric enterprises will continue facing cost pressure; only with sustained autumn/winter consumption and brand replenishment orders can the fabric market open further growth space. Current signals suggest the market will likely continue its structural trend: commodity categories will face intensifying survival pressure, while enterprises with differentiated products and rapid response capabilities will see their advantages grow.
For industry players, rationally treating raw material trends and strictly controlling inventory risks are bottom lines. Reducing homogeneous commodity capacity, digging into real downstream demand, building quick-response systems, and converting sampling and delivery efficiency into core competitiveness represent the mainstream path to survive stock competition. The Keqiao cluster's synergy—from yarn, weaving to finishing—provides fertile ground for rapid implementation of differentiated products, but the key lies in whether enterprises can shift from passive order-taking to proactively defining demand.