The combination of rising raw materials and cooling fabric demand is redistributing profit across the Keqiao textile chain. The latest Keqiao textile index came in at 106.68 points, down 0.25% month on month, while the raw material sub-index rose 0.18% to 94.40. Two numbers moving in opposite directions signal a widening scissors gap between cost and transaction, squeezing the middle of the chain.
Raw Materials: Polyester and Cotton Firm, Viscose Lags
Polyester is the main driver of this upward move. Higher PTA and ethylene glycol prices have pushed polyester yarn quotations up repeatedly, with deals now negotiated case by case and quotes valid for shorter periods. For spinning mills, this means cost must be locked at the moment of order intake, or processing margins can vanish.
Cotton yarn is also firmer. 32S carded yarn holds near 25,100 yuan per ton, supported by high cotton prices, yet downstream buying remains cautious and large-scale stockpiling is rare. Viscose yarn, by contrast, is weak with a wait-and-see mood. The divergence across three raw material categories suggests this rally is cost-driven and structural rather than a broad demand pull.
Frequent upstream price changes transmit pressure first to spinning, while weaving and fabric mills must respect brand clients' budget constraints when taking orders. The resistance to passing costs downstream has clearly increased, making the middle layer the thinnest-margin segment.
Fabric: Structural Recovery, Differentiation Sets Pricing Power
Grey fabric prices and volumes eased month on month, and apparel fabric categories diverged further. Wool blends and specialty differentiated chemical fiber fabrics saw better inquiries and shipments, while pure cotton and ordinary polyester-cotton staples traded flat. Autumn-winter consumption lifted demand for thick blends, small-texture and lightweight functional fabrics, but large orders shrank. Most clients place small trial batches and only add volume after positive feedback.
Home textiles ran steady, with export orders recovering somewhat, though overseas buyers remain highly sensitive to raw material swings and strict on price. Homogeneous grey fabrics are trapped in low-price competition with thin margins, while differentiated fabrics with unique textures and special blend ratios command stronger pricing power and serve as a key hedge against cost risk.
The essence of this divergence: when raw material costs cannot be passed downstream smoothly, product differentiation becomes the only bargaining chip. The less substitutable the fabric, the better the margin protection during a cost upcycle.
Mills: From Volume to Solution Selling
Facing frequent raw material swings and fragmenting orders, textile firms are moving beyond the old grey-fabric volume model. On procurement, they lock prices in batches to avoid inventory risk from sharp moves, and deepen coordination with upstream spinners, prioritizing differentiated blended yarns.
On products, R&D is moving earlier in the cycle. Stores display yarn samples alongside finished garments to offer clients complete fabric solutions, while sampling cycles are compressed to match small-batch quick-response needs. Channels span traditional export and cross-border e-commerce to spread market risk. The common thread: turning delivery efficiency and R&D capability into new competitive barriers.
The key variables ahead remain raw material prices and end-consumer demand. If chemical fiber prices stay high, cost pressure on fabric mills will persist; only sustained autumn-winter consumption and brand replenishment can open more room for the fabric market. The industry is likely to stay in a structural行情, with survival pressure intensifying for commodity grades and advantages accruing to firms with differentiated products and fast response.