Keqiao's textile price index closed the latest reading at 106.68, down 0.25% month on month, while the raw material sub-index rose 0.18% to 94.40. That apparent contradiction defines the real scissors gap of this Golden September: upstream quotes are firming while downstream transactions retreat. For weavers and fabric mills, rising costs and softening selling prices are squeezing margins from both ends, and that is the signal the market should watch most closely.
Raw Materials: Polyester Leads, Yarn Diverges
Across the polyester chain, PTA and ethylene glycol prices both moved higher, pushing polyester yarn quotes up continuously, with deals increasingly negotiated case by case and quote validity periods visibly shortening. Cotton yarn edged up in tandem, with 32S carded yarn holding near 25,100 yuan per tonne; high cotton prices provide cost support, yet downstream buying remains cautious and large-scale stockpiling is rare. Viscose yarn, by contrast, stays weak with a wait-and-see mood.
Three categories moving at three different speeds means the yarn market is no longer a single tide but a set of separately priced streams. For buyers, timing a price lock has become harder; for spinners, inventory must be managed品种 by品种, and blind stockpiling carries more risk than in previous years.
Cost pressure is transmitting up the chain to spinning mills, but weavers and fabric makers must also respect downstream brand budgets when taking orders, so passing costs to the end of the chain meets clear resistance. That is the root cause of a rising raw material index alongside a falling finished goods index.
Demand: Structural Recovery, Differentiated Fabrics Hold Firm
This year's Golden September has not delivered a broad surge. Grey fabric prices and volumes retreated month on month, and apparel fabric categories diverged sharply: wool blends and specialty differentiated synthetics saw improving inquiries and shipments, while pure cotton and ordinary polyester-cotton commodity fabrics traded flat. Autumn-winter consumption is lifting demand for thick blends, small-texture and lightweight functional fabrics.
Order structure deserves more attention. Domestic womenswear brands and e-commerce clients now rely mainly on small-batch, quick-response orders, with large orders shrinking; most customers trial small lots first and reorder only after good market feedback. Home textiles run steadily, export orders have warmed somewhat, but overseas buyers are highly sensitive to raw material volatility and keep strict control over prices.
Homogeneous grey fabrics are trapped in low-price internal competition with razor-thin margins, while differentiated fabrics with unique textures and special blend ratios command stronger pricing power and become a key tool for merchants to hedge cost risk. In the stock-competition phase, differentiation is no longer a bonus but a survival requirement.
Corporate Response: From Volume to Solution Selling
Facing frequent raw material swings and fragmenting orders, Keqiao mills are abandoning the old model of simply pushing grey fabric volume. On the raw material side, companies adopt phased price-locking procurement to avoid inventory risk from violent price swings, and strengthen coordination with upstream spinners, prioritizing differentiated blended yarns.
On the product side, front-loaded R&D is becoming the norm: stores display yarn samples alongside finished garment samples, delivering complete fabric solutions to clients, while accelerating new product iteration and compressing sampling cycles to match brand clients' small-batch, quick-response needs. On channels, companies balance traditional export with cross-border e-commerce to spread single-market risk.
The key variables ahead remain raw material prices and end-consumer demand. If chemical fiber prices stay high, cost pressure on fabric mills will persist; only sustained autumn-winter consumption and brand replenishment can further open up growth space. The market is likely to stay structural, with commodity categories under intensifying pressure, while companies with differentiated products and fast response will see their advantages sharpen.