Widening Price Gap Between Imported and Domestic Cotton Yarn Opens a Window for Low- and Mid-Count Varieties

The price gap between imported and domestic cotton yarn is widening, and this time the direction favors buyers. In early September 2026, FOB and CNF offers for cotton yarn from Vietnam, India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Uzbekistan softened overall, with open-end yarn and coarse ring-spun counts falling more sharply than medium- and high-count combed yarn. After customs clearance, the discount of imported yarn against domestic quotes continued to widen.

Three Forces Behind the Softening Offers

The first pressure comes from raw materials. Since late August, ICE cotton futures have retreated significantly, directly lowering the cost expectations for yarn priced off US and Brazilian cotton. Meanwhile, domestic cotton prices in India and Pakistan have fallen for consecutive sessions since early September, stripping mills in both countries of any reason to hold offers firm.

The second pressure comes from energy and logistics. Renewed US-Iran tensions have pushed crude oil and natural gas prices higher, feeding back into shipping and trade. Cotton product orders and exports across Southeast Asia have been constrained, and mills are more willing to concede on price to keep shipment schedules intact.

The third pressure comes from competitive dynamics. Some large, branded mills in Vietnam, India and Pakistan were the first to cut export offers, forcing second- and third-tier brands to follow. This created a top-down price correction. Relatively speaking, Vietnamese OEC10S to 21S FOB and CNF quotes remain lower than comparable Indian, Pakistani and Indonesian yarn, making them more competitive. Denim, knit underwear, knit fleece, home textile, corduroy and labor protection product manufacturers in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang are paying noticeably more attention.

It is worth noting that Indian JC60S and 80S high-count combed yarn, constrained by limited bonded and shipment offers and stubbornly high costs, have held relatively stable at weak levels rather than following the decline in lower-count varieties. This means the current softening is structural, not across the board.

Domestic Firmness and a Widening Discount

In contrast to the softening export offers, domestic cotton yarn quotes have not followed Zhengzhou cotton futures or spot cotton prices lower. With the arrival of the 'Golden September and Silver October' peak season, mills have accelerated destocking, and some large enterprises have even raised ex-factory prices for open-end yarn.

This divergence has directly widened the discount of landed imported yarn against domestic quotes. For coastal weaving, fabric and garment factories, the cost-performance advantage of imported yarn at equivalent counts has been amplified, reviving purchasing interest and making spot trading more active.

In terms of order structure, export orders remain dominated by short, scattered and small batches. These orders have short raw material lock-in periods and high price sensitivity, making them naturally inclined toward flexible, short-lead-time imported low- and mid-count yarn. This is the deeper reason behind the recovery in imported yarn demand, rather than price gap alone.

For buyers, two types of opportunities should be distinguished: open-end and coarse ring-spun yarns have opened up room for negotiation, suitable for quick replenishment on short orders; high-count combed yarn supply remains tight, with limited room for price cuts, and should not be approached with the same logic.

For domestic mills, a firm pricing strategy can be maintained during the peak season, but if export offers continue to decline and the discount widens further, substitution purchasing at the weaving end will accelerate. Inventory depletion may then fall short of expectations, and pricing flexibility after late October should be evaluated in advance.

Regional and Category Transmission

From the perspective of industrial belt reactions, inquiries have heated up most directly in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang, corresponding to denim, knit underwear, knit fleece, home textiles and labor protection products. What these categories share is a concentration in low- and mid-count yarn requirements and price-sensitive export destinations.

Cotton yarn trading enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang sit in the middle, capturing the procurement window created by lower export offers while facing dual pressure from downstream price bargaining and inventory turnover. Traders' quoting strategies will directly affect how long this window lasts.

Over a longer cycle, Southeast Asian mills do not have unlimited room to concede amid high energy and shipping costs. Once crude oil and natural gas prices rise again, or Indian and Pakistani cotton prices stop falling, the downward slope of export offers will quickly flatten. The current window is more likely阶段性 than trend-setting.

For Buyers - Prioritize locking in short-order volumes for low- and mid-count open-end and coarse ring-spun yarn, building positions in batches during the widened discount rather than committing heavily at once. - Do not apply the same bargaining logic to high-count combed yarn; focus on supply security and confirm shipment schedules and bonded stocks in advance. - Watch the price advantage of Vietnamese OEC10S to 21S and run substitution sampling tests in denim, knit and home textile categories.

For Exporters - With short, scattered and small orders dominating, quotes should retain adjustment clauses for raw material volatility to avoid locking in costs. - Closely track ICE cotton futures and Indian and Pakistani cotton prices; once raw materials stabilize, adjust delivery schedules and pricing expectations for downstream customers in a timely manner.