Raw materials are rising while fabric prices are falling — the most alarming divergence in Keqiao's textile market during the 2026 Golden September peak season. Keqiao's textile index shows the raw material sub-index up 0.18% month-on-month, while the textile price index fell 0.25% to 106.68 points. The disconnect means cost pressure is not being passed downstream but swallowed by the midstream weaving sector.
Where the Price Chain Breaks
The polyester chain is the main driver. PTA and ethylene glycol prices climbed, pushing polyester yarn quotes higher, with transactions increasingly negotiated case by case and quote validity periods shortening. Cotton yarn also edged up, with 32S carded yarn holding near 25,100 yuan per ton, supported by high cotton prices, though downstream buying remains cautious and large-scale stockpiling is rare. Viscose yarn, by contrast, stays weak with a wait-and-see mood.
Three categories, three rhythms — this is not a broad-based raw material bull run but a structural cost shock. For spinners, frequent price changes mean shorter lock-in windows. For weavers and fabric makers, fast-moving upstream quotes and rigid downstream brand budgets squeeze margins from both ends. Cost pass-through resistance is far greater than expected.
Why the Peak Season Isn't Booming
Grey fabric prices and volumes retreated month-on-month, and apparel fabric categories diverged sharply. Wool blends and differentiated chemical fiber fabrics saw improving inquiries and shipments, while pure cotton and ordinary polyester-cotton staples traded flat. Autumn-winter demand lifted thick blends, small-texture and lightweight functional fabrics, but domestic womenswear brands and e-commerce clients mostly place small-batch quick-response orders, with large orders shrinking. Most buyers trial small orders first, then reorder if market feedback is good.
Home textiles ran steadily, with export orders recovering somewhat, but overseas buyers are highly sensitive to raw material volatility and strict on pricing. Homogeneous grey fabrics are trapped in price wars with thin margins, while differentiated fabrics with unique textures and special blend ratios command stronger pricing power, becoming a key hedge against cost risk. The peak season dividend is concentrating among businesses with product differentiation, not spreading evenly.
Rebuilding Competitiveness from the Yarn Up
Facing volatile raw materials and fragmenting orders, Keqiao mills are abandoning the old volume-driven grey fabric model. On procurement, companies lock prices in batches to avoid inventory risk from sharp swings, and deepen collaboration with upstream spinners, prioritizing differentiated blended yarns. On products, R&D is moving upstream, with stores displaying yarn samples alongside finished garments to offer complete fabric solutions.
Companies are accelerating new product iterations and compressing sampling cycles to serve small-batch quick-response brand needs, while balancing traditional export channels with cross-border e-commerce to spread market risk. The core variables ahead remain raw material prices and end-consumer demand. If chemical fiber prices stay high, fabric makers' cost pressure will persist; only sustained autumn-winter consumption and brand replenishment can further open up growth space.
The market will likely continue its structural pattern: pressure on commodity categories intensifies, while companies with differentiated products and rapid response capabilities will see their advantages sharpen. In stock competition, the volume-driven model is fading. Deepening fabric R&D upward from yarn and improving customer service downward is becoming the mainstream path for Keqiao mills.