Keqiao's latest textile index carries an unusual signal: the raw material sub-index rose 0.18% to 94.40 points, while the fabric price index fell 0.25% to 106.68 points. Upstream is climbing, downstream is slipping. This divergence means weaving and fabric mills are absorbing costs passively, squeezed from both ends. For buyers, this is not mere price fluctuation but an early sign of bargaining power being redistributed along the chain.
Raw Materials: Polyester Leads, Cotton Yarn Follows Without Conviction
The polyester chain is the main driver. Higher PTA and ethylene glycol prices have pushed polyester yarn quotes up continuously, with spot deals increasingly negotiated case by case and quote validity periods shortening. Cotton yarn edged up in tandem, with 32S carded yarn holding near 25,100 yuan/ton. High cotton prices provide cost support, but downstream buying remains cautious and large-scale stockpiling is rare, suggesting spinners are passing on costs rather than responding to demand.
Viscose yarn moved independently weaker, with a wait-and-see mood prevailing. The divergence among the three major yarn categories itself indicates uneven end-user demand. For spinners, a mistimed raw material purchase can wipe out processing margins; for weavers, yarn costs rise while fabric prices struggle to follow, compressing the middle segment's profit and making cost pass-through to brand customers increasingly difficult.
Fabrics: Structural Recovery, Differentiated Products Hold Pricing Power
This Golden September has not delivered a full-blown boom. Greige fabric prices and volumes fell month-on-month, and apparel fabric categories diverged further: wool blends and specialty differentiated chemical fiber fabrics saw improving inquiries and shipments, while pure cotton and ordinary polyester-cotton commodity fabrics traded flat. Autumn-winter consumption is driving demand for thicker blends, small-texture and lightweight functional fabrics. Domestic womenswear brands and e-commerce clients favor small-batch quick-response orders, with large orders shrinking; most customers test with small orders first and reorder after positive feedback.
Home textiles ran steadily, with export orders recovering somewhat, but overseas buyers remain highly sensitive to raw material volatility and strict on pricing. Homogeneous greige fabrics are trapped in low-price competition with razor-thin margins; differentiated fabrics with unique textures and special blend ratios command stronger pricing power and serve as a key hedge against cost risk. This divergence means volume-driven models are losing effectiveness, and product definition capability now matters more than production scale in determining where profit lands.
Corporate Response: Price Locking, Front-Loaded R&D and Quick Response
Facing frequent raw material swings and fragmentized orders, Keqiao mills are adjusting on multiple fronts. On the raw material side, they adopt batch-by-batch price locking to avoid inventory risk from violent fluctuations, strengthen collaboration with upstream spinners, and prioritize differentiated blended yarns to build fabric competitiveness from the source. On the product side, R&D is moved forward, with stores displaying yarn samples alongside finished garments to offer complete fabric solutions, while accelerating new product iteration and shortening sampling cycles.
On channels, companies balance traditional export with cross-border e-commerce to spread single-market risk. The core variables ahead remain raw material prices and end-user consumption. If chemical fiber prices stay high, fabric mills will continue to face cost pressure; only sustained autumn-winter consumption and brand replenishment can further open growth space. The industry is likely to extend its structural trend, with commodity categories facing intensifying pressure and companies with differentiated products and quick response capabilities gaining clear advantages.