Raw materials rising while fabric prices fall—this is not a short-term fluctuation but a profit redistribution unfolding within Keqiao's textile hub. The latest Keqiao Textile Index delivers a telling set of numbers: the raw material sub-index reached 94.40 points, up 0.18% month-on-month, while the textile price index settled at 106.68 points, down 0.25%. This divergence between cost and selling price signals that margins in the midstream of the supply chain are being squeezed from both ends.
The Cost Pass-Through Dilemma Behind the Data Divergence
Start with the raw material side. The polyester chain has shown notable strength recently, with PTA and ethylene glycol prices climbing in tandem, directly pushing up polyester yarn quotations. Spot transactions are increasingly negotiated on a case-by-case basis, with quotation validity periods visibly shortening. The cotton yarn market has also edged upward, with 32S carded yarn holding near 25,100 yuan per ton, supported by elevated cotton prices. However, downstream purchasing sentiment remains cautious, and large-scale stockpiling is rare—suggesting weaving enterprises are not betting on a near-term demand surge.
Viscose yarn presents a weaker picture, with a pronounced wait-and-see atmosphere. The divergence among these three major yarn categories essentially mirrors structural shifts in end-user demand—autumn/winter orders are driving up demand for blended and functional fabrics while dampening enthusiasm for conventional viscose products.
Cost pressure transmits relatively smoothly to upstream spinning mills, but resistance intensifies sharply at the weaving and fabric stages. Fabric manufacturers must accommodate downstream brand clients' budget constraints when taking orders, making it difficult to pass on the full extent of raw material increases. Midstream players—especially producers of grey fabric and conventional fabrics lacking differentiation—see their margins continuously compressed.
Structural Recovery and Order Fragmentation in Parallel
This year's Golden September has not delivered a full-blown boom. Instead, the market shows clear structural recovery characteristics. Grey fabric prices and volumes have retreated month-on-month, and the divergence within apparel fabric categories has widened further. Wool blends and specialty differentiated chemical fiber fabrics are seeing improved inquiries and shipments, while plain cotton and ordinary polyester-cotton conventional fabrics remain sluggish.
Autumn/winter consumption trends are reshaping fabric demand structure. Thicker blends, subtle textures, and lightweight functional fabrics are gaining traction. Domestic womenswear brands and e-commerce clients predominantly place small-batch quick-response orders. The share of large orders has shrunk, with most customers testing the waters through small trial orders before replenishing. This order fragmentation trend demands greater flexible production capacity from factories.
The home textile segment remains relatively stable, with export orders showing some recovery. However, overseas buyers are highly sensitive to raw material price volatility and maintain strict price control. Homogenized grey fabrics are trapped in low-price competition with razor-thin margins, while differentiated fabrics with unique textures and special blend ratios command stronger pricing power—becoming a key tool for merchants to hedge cost risks.
Multi-Dimensional Breakthrough Strategies for Source Enterprises
Facing frequent raw material fluctuations and order fragmentation, Keqiao's textile enterprises are moving away from the old model of simply pushing grey fabric volume, upgrading across raw material procurement, product development, and service models.
On the procurement side, batch-based price locking has become mainstream, mitigating inventory risks from volatile raw material prices. Enterprises are also strengthening collaboration with upstream spinning mills, prioritizing differentiated blended yarns to solidify fabric competitiveness from the source.
On the product side, R&D front-loading is evident. Stores simultaneously display yarn samples and finished garment samples, offering clients complete fabric solutions rather than selling single varieties. Companies are accelerating new product iteration and compressing sampling cycles to accommodate brand clients' small-batch quick-response needs. On the channel front, they are balancing traditional exports with cross-border e-commerce to diversify market risks.
The core variables for future market conditions remain raw material prices and end-consumer demand. If chemical fiber prices stay elevated, cost pressure on fabric enterprises will persist; only sustained autumn/winter consumption and brand replenishment can further expand the fabric market's growth space. The industry is likely to continue its structural trajectory, with survival pressure intensifying for commodity categories while enterprises possessing differentiated products and rapid response capabilities will see their advantages amplified.