Within just two days, mainstream polyester filament yarn quotes in the Changshu market rose almost across the board, with certain bright FDY grades jumping by 300 yuan per ton, while downstream purchasing pace failed to keep up. This combination of rising prices and flat volumes is the key angle for judging the sustainability of the current rally.
Price Structure: Who Rose Most, Who Followed
Comparing quotes from September 8 to 10, both FDY and DTY categories moved higher, but internal divergence was evident. Among regular semi-dull FDY, the 68D/24F specification was quoted by Rongsheng Petrochemical and Tongkun Group at 10,250 yuan/ton and 10,200 yuan/ton respectively, each up 200 yuan over two days. The 150D/96F specification—the largest volume grade used in weaving—saw quotes from Tongxiang Tongkun, Xiaoshan Hengyi, and Jiabao New Fiber cluster in the 9,600 to 9,650 yuan/ton range, with a uniform increase of 200 yuan.
The real divergence in magnitude came from bright trilobal series. The 50D/24F bright grade was quoted by Rongsheng Chemical Fiber at 10,450 yuan/ton, and the 50D/36F bright grade by Jiabao New Fiber at 10,400 yuan/ton, both up 300 yuan from two days earlier. The 75D/36F bright specification saw synchronized quotes from Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Huaya, Rongsheng Chemical Fiber, and Jiabao Chemical Fiber rise to 10,050–10,100 yuan/ton, with increases between 200 and 300 yuan. The leading gains in bright grades typically signal structural demand from downstream imitation silk, lining, and decorative fabric orders, rather than purely raw material cost pressure.
On the DTY side, Taicang texturing's 75D/36F was quoted at 11,200 yuan/ton, while Jiangsu Taicang and Jiangsu Wujiang's 100D/36F both stood at 10,900 yuan/ton, each up 200 yuan. The 150D/144F fixed-weight grade from Rongsheng Petrochemical rose to 10,700 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan, making it the largest gainer within DTY. Notably, Zhejiang Yuandong's 200D/96F fixed-weight grade held steady at 10,250 yuan/ton with no movement over two days, indicating relatively ample supply in coarse-denier DTY and insufficient momentum to follow the rally.
Cost Transmission: Raw Material Surge Is the Main Driver, but Downstream Acceptance Is Questionable
The direct trigger for this round of quote increases is the strong upward movement in polyester raw material prices. PTA and MEG, as core feedstocks for polyester filament, quickly elevate cash costs in the polymerization and spinning stages when their prices rise. Based on conventional industry feedstock consumption calculations, each upward move in raw materials shifts the theoretical cost support for filament yarn accordingly. Spinning mills, operating with low inventories, tend to quickly adjust quotes to lock in processing margins.
The problem is that sales volumes have not expanded in tandem with prices. Changshu market, as a key polyester filament distribution hub in the Yangtze River Delta, serves as a bellwether for downstream warp knitting, circular knitting, and water-jet weaving enterprises. The current pattern of "across-the-board increases with modest volumes" suggests weaving mills have limited acceptance of current price levels, mainly digesting prior inventories or making small, need-based replenishments. For buyers, this means that while quotes have risen, negotiating room may still exist in actual transactions, especially for non-bright regular grades.
From a industrial belt transmission perspective, the three major production bases of Xiaoshan, Tongxiang, and Taicang moved in unison in this round of price adjustments. Quotes from leading enterprises such as Rongsheng, Tongkun, Xinfengming, and Hengyi maintained a reasonable spread of 50 to 100 yuan/ton, with no obvious low-price order-grabbing. This reflects, to some extent, that mainstream mills hold a relatively strong market outlook and are willing to actively maintain price order.
Industry Impact: Weaving Margins Under Pressure, Export Quote Windows Narrowing
For downstream weaving enterprises, two consecutive days of raw material increases directly push up immediate production costs. If grey fabric or finished fabric prices cannot be transmitted simultaneously, processing margins in the weaving segment will be compressed. This is especially true for commodity products dominated by regular specifications such as 150D/96F and 100D/48F, where market competition is intense and passing costs downstream is more difficult.
For export-oriented enterprises, the impact is more complex. Rising filament yarn quotes raise the raw material cost base for fabric exports, while export orders typically use fixed-price contracts with a one-to-three-month cycle from order placement to delivery. If the raw material rally continues, orders priced on lower feedstock costs earlier will face margin erosion. Conversely, if enterprises hold low-priced raw material inventories from earlier, the current rally actually provides a temporary quoting advantage.
The strong performance of bright grades also signals a nuanced trend: demand resilience is relatively strong for imitation silk, acetate-substitute fabrics, and certain decorative textiles. Weaving enterprises in these segments have relatively better bargaining power amid current raw material volatility. Buyers involved in such categories should prioritize securing supply to avoid被动 situations from further price increases.