Raw materials are rising while fabrics are falling. That inverse pair of numbers from Keqiao's textile market in September 2026 says more about the season than any optimistic headline. The Keqiao textile index shows the raw material sub-index up 0.18% month-on-month, while the textile price index fell 0.25%. Between that rise and fall, margins in weaving and fabric-making have been visibly squeezed. The traditional Golden September did not deliver a broad rally; instead, it pushed the profit distribution conflict within the supply chain to the forefront.
Data Breakdown: Where the Scissors Gap Comes From
On the upstream side, the polyester chain is the main driver. PTA and ethylene glycol prices moved higher, directly pushing polyester yarn quotes up. Spot transactions increasingly moved to case-by-case negotiation, and quote validity periods shortened noticeably. Cotton yarn followed modestly, with 32S carded yarn holding near 25,100 yuan per ton. High cotton prices provided cost support, but downstream buying remained cautious, and large-scale stockpiling was rare. Viscose yarn was weak, with a wait-and-see mood. Divergence within the yarn market is now quite clear.
What does this divergence mean? For spinning mills, frequent raw material quote changes push cost pressure up the chain. But weaving and fabric enterprises must also respect the budget constraints of downstream brand clients when taking orders. The middle link can neither fully pass on costs nor push upstream quotes down, so profits are squeezed from both sides. The growing resistance to transmitting costs to the fabric end is the core structural contradiction in the Keqiao market today.
Industrial Transmission: Structural Recovery, Fragmenting Orders
Grey fabric prices and volumes fell month-on-month, and divergence among apparel fabric categories widened. Wool blends and specialty differentiated chemical fiber fabrics saw relatively better inquiries and shipments, while pure cotton and ordinary polyester-cotton fabrics traded flat. Autumn-winter consumption lifted demand for thick blends, small-texture fabrics and lightweight functional materials. Domestic womenswear brands and e-commerce clients focused on small-batch, quick-response orders. Large orders shrank, and most clients placed trial orders first, adding volume only after good market feedback.
Home textiles ran steadily, and export orders recovered somewhat, but overseas buyers were highly sensitive to raw material volatility and strict on price. Homogeneous grey fabrics fell into low-price competition with thin margins. Differentiated fabrics with unique textures and special blend ratios had stronger bargaining power, becoming an important hedge against cost risk. For factories, order fragmentation is not just a change in how orders arrive; it means production scheduling, inventory strategy and sampling efficiency must all be restructured.
Facing frequent raw material swings and fragmenting orders, upstream enterprises began adjusting on multiple fronts. On procurement, they adopted batch-based price locking to avoid inventory risk from sharp swings, and strengthened coordination with spinning mills, prioritizing differentiated blended yarns. On products, they pushed R&D forward, displaying yarn samples alongside finished garments in stores to offer complete fabric solutions. Companies accelerated new product iteration, compressed sampling cycles, and balanced traditional export channels with cross-border e-commerce to spread market risk.
Outlook: Commodity Pressure, Differentiation and Quick Response Decide Survival
The key variables ahead remain raw material prices and end-consumer demand. If chemical fiber prices stay high, cost pressure on fabric enterprises will persist. Only if autumn-winter demand continues to release and brand replenishment follows can the fabric market open further growth space. The industry is likely to continue a structural market, with commodity categories facing intensifying pressure, while companies with differentiated products and quick-response capability will see their advantages grow.
In stock competition, the model of relying on capacity volume is fading. Starting from yarn and raw materials, deepening fabric R&D upward and improving customer service downward is becoming the mainstream path for Keqiao textile firms. For buyers, this means supplier screening criteria should shift from lowest price to fast sampling, stable delivery and small-order flexibility. For exporters, quoting strategy must factor in raw material volatility ranges, otherwise more orders mean more risk.