A raw material index up 0.18% while the fabric index falls 0.25% — same market, same month, opposite directions. The scissors gap recorded by Keqiao Textile City in September 2026 carries more signal than any single phrase about a weak peak season: costs are pushing up while transactions slide down, and midstream margins are being squeezed from both ends.
Where the Price Scissors Gap Comes From
Trends in chemical fiber raw materials reflected in China Customs data and National Bureau of Statistics public data align with the Keqiao textile index. The composite textile price index stood at 106.68 points, down 0.25% month on month, while the raw material sub-index reached 94.40 points, up 0.18%. The polyester chain was most prominent: higher PTA and ethylene glycol prices directly lifted polyester yarn quotes, with deals widely negotiated case by case and quote validity periods sharply shortened.
Cotton yarn faced similar pressure. 32S carded yarn held near 25,100 yuan per ton, supported by high cotton prices, yet downstream buying remained cautious and large-scale stockpiling was rare. Viscose yarn stayed weak with a wait-and-see mood. Three yarn categories moving at three different rhythms means spinning mills cannot apply a uniform pricing strategy and must lock prices by variety and by batch.
For weaving and fabric mills, this is not simply "raw materials got expensive." The real trouble is growing resistance to passing costs downstream — brand clients have rigid budgets, and overseas buyers are highly sensitive to raw material volatility, leaving the midstream to absorb the difference.
Fragmenting Orders Reshape the Fabric Landscape
This Golden September did not deliver a full-blown boom, but a structural recovery. Greige prices and volumes retreated month on month, and apparel fabric categories diverged further: wool blends and differentiated chemical fiber fabrics saw firmer inquiries and shipments, while pure cotton and ordinary polyester-cotton staples traded flat. Autumn-winter consumption lifted demand for thick blends, small-texture and lightweight functional fabrics.
The shift in order structure deserves more attention. Domestic womenswear brands and e-commerce clients rely mainly on small-batch quick-response orders, with large orders shrinking; most clients place trial small orders first and add volume only after good market feedback. Home textiles ran steadily, export orders warmed somewhat, but overseas buyers kept strict control over pricing.
Homogeneous greige fabrics are trapped in low-price competition with thin margins, while differentiated fabrics with unique textures and special blend ratios command stronger bargaining power. For buyers, this means supplier screening is shifting from "who is cheapest" to "who can reliably deliver differentiated products."
Three Paths for Mills to Break Out
Facing frequent raw material swings and fragmenting orders, Keqiao mills are moving away from the old model of simply pushing greige volume.
- Raw materials: batch-based price locking to avoid inventory risk from violent swings, plus closer coordination with upstream spinners and priority use of differentiated blended yarns;
- Products: front-loaded R&D, with stores displaying yarn samples alongside finished garment samples to deliver complete fabric solutions;
- Delivery: shorter sampling cycles, faster new product iteration, and a balance of traditional export and cross-border e-commerce channels to spread market risk.
The common thread is turning sampling and delivery efficiency into core competitiveness. In stock competition, the volume-driven model is fading, and moving from yarn raw materials upward into fabric R&D and downward into customer service has become the mainstream path forward.
Outlook Variables and Risk Notes
The key variables remain raw material prices and end-consumer demand. If chemical fiber prices stay high, cost pressure on fabric mills will persist; only sustained autumn-winter consumption and brand replenishment can further open growth space. The industry will likely continue a structural market, with staple categories under growing pressure and companies possessing differentiated products and fast response gaining clear advantages.