The recent price increase in polyester filament has been anything but bustling. Between September 10 and 13, mainstream specifications in the Changshu market saw tax-inclusive quotes rise by 50 to 200 yuan per ton, with certain DTY specifications jumping 200 yuan in a single adjustment. Yet sales volume did not expand in tandem. This suggests the current rally is closer to cost-push inflation than demand-driven recovery.
Price Movements: Who Raised, By How Much
In the FDY segment, nearly all specifications followed the upward trend. 68D/24F first-grade bright white filament rose from 10,200–10,250 yuan/ton to 10,300–10,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100–150 yuan. Regular specifications such as 75D/36F, 100D/48F, and 150D/96F generally rose by 50–100 yuan. The bright trilobal series was no exception, with 50D/24F, 75D/36F, and 108D/48F rising by 50–150 yuan.
In the DTY segment, 75D/36F from Taicang texturing mills reached 11,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. 100D/36F from both Taicang and Wujiang in Jiangsu was quoted at 11,000 yuan/ton. 150D/144F from Rongsheng Petrochemical and Xinfengming stood at 10,800 yuan/ton and 10,750 yuan/ton respectively. 200D/96F from Zhejiang Yuandong rose 200 yuan in a single adjustment, one of the largest increases in this round.
It is worth noting that the price gap between different origins for the same specification has not narrowed significantly. For 150D/96F, Tongxiang Tongkun quoted 9,700 yuan/ton, while Xiaoshan Hengyi and Jiabao New Fiber quoted 9,750 yuan/ton. A gap of around 50 yuan means buyers still have room for negotiation in supplier selection.
Industry Impact: Strong Costs, Weak Demand
Strong polyester raw material prices are the direct driver of this round of price adjustments. As raw material costs rise, filament producers see their profit margins squeezed, and quote increases are a passive transmission. The problem is that the weaving segment has not shown signs of concentrated restocking, with production-to-sales ratios remaining lackluster and some mills purchasing only on a need-to-buy basis with small orders.
This combination of "strong raw materials, weak demand" has asymmetric effects on upstream and downstream players. For filament producers, whether price increases can hold depends on downstream acceptance. If production-to-sales ratios remain depressed, there is a possibility of subsequent concessions to move inventory. For weaving mills, rising raw material costs will directly squeeze processing margins, especially for water-jet and air-jet weaving capacity using regular FDY and DTY, which has weak bargaining power.
Regionally, the Yangtze River Delta industrial belts of Changshu, Taicang, Xiaoshan, Tongxiang, and Wujiang are clearly interconnected, with quote adjustments occurring largely in sync. This reflects the high efficiency of information transmission in the polyester filament market, making it difficult for any single plant to deviate from the mainstream price range for long. But precisely because of this, if demand softens, price corrections could also spread quickly across the industrial belt.
Trend Judgment: Short-Term Firm, Medium-Term Depends on Sales
In the short term, polyester raw materials have not shown clear signs of weakening, and filament quotes may still edge upward. However, the probability of narrowing increases is rising—this round's adjustments have gradually converged from 150–200 yuan to 50–100 yuan, indicating that producers are becoming more cautious about further increases.
The key variable for the medium-term trend lies in weaving utilization rates and production-to-sales ratios. If weaving orders pick up in late September and restocking begins, price support will be more solid. If sales remain weak, the sustainability of cost-push increases will be tested. For buyers, the current window is not ideal for concentrated stockpiling;分批锁价 and controlling inventory days is more prudent.