30% to 40% — that was the operating rate range for polyester filament plants in Shengze and Jiaxing on September 12-13. In the polyester industry, this is not a healthy figure. A balanced operating rate typically sits above 80%, so falling below 40% means more than half of daily output is turning into inventory. Yet the puzzling part is that polyester producers held quotes steady, with a few even nudging prices up. This divergence between output-sales ratio and pricing is the most telling signal in this market round.
The Inventory Logic Behind the Divergence
Start with the supply side. Polyester filament inventories at producers remain at low levels, which is the core support for firm quotes. Low inventory gives plants the confidence to hold prices, but persistently weak operating rates mean inventories are passively accumulating. This contradiction cannot coexist indefinitely.
On the demand side, water-jet loom operating rates are being maintained with effort, and weaving and texturing plants hold limited polyester filament stocks. In theory, there is room for restocking, but uncertainty over raw material prices makes downstream buyers extremely cautious about chasing higher prices. The downstream does not lack demand — it lacks the willingness to bet when direction is unclear.
The result of this standoff: a near-term upward price adjustment for polyester filament cannot be ruled out. The logic chain is straightforward — low inventory combined with low downstream holdings means that once weaving orders are released in a concentrated manner, restocking demand will quickly push prices higher. But the precondition is that end-user orders can be sustained.
What Product Differentiation Reveals About End-User Demand
The varying performance across filament categories reveals more about what is happening in end markets than aggregate data can.
FDY fine denier deserves attention. 48D/48F has seen a recovery in lining fabric demand for high-density polyester taffeta, with quotes at 10,650-10,800 yuan/ton. The price spread between mills has narrowed noticeably from earlier levels. A narrowing spread typically signals increased demand concentration and rising buyer sensitivity to quality and delivery times.
Bright FDY fine denier sales have recovered, with 30D/24F particularly active, mainly for polyester-nylon blended fabrics. Semi-dull FDY is outperforming bright and regular variants overall, with 40D/48F seeing acceptable downstream demand. This indicates that differentiated and functional varieties are gaining premium space.
In contrast, regular DTY coarse denier network yarn sales are weak, cationic differential yarn trading volume is modest, and intermingled POY sales are generally soft. The weakness in regular varieties versus the activity in differentiated ones points to the same conclusion: end-market demand for ordinary fabrics is saturating, and growth is shifting toward functional and differentiated fabrics.
POY 150D/144F is quoted at around 9,650 yuan/ton on a cash basis. At this level, texturing margins are already thin, and the small-volume purchasing behavior of texturing plants confirms their wait-and-see stance.
Stability and Shifts in the Yarn Market
The yarn sector presents a different picture. Cotton yarn sales are steady with prices adjusting within a narrow range. 21s and 32s remain active, with 32s mainly used for air-jet jacquard fabrics. Polyester-cotton 65/35 prices are stable, while 80/10 and 90/10 have seen slight upward adjustments. 80/20 45s trading volume is acceptable.
Pure polyester yarn continues to be steady-to-firm, with polyester staple fiber prices edging up. The 1.56×38 cotton-type center price is below 8,700 yuan/ton. The upward shift in staple fiber prices provides cost support for pure polyester yarn, but the transmission magnitude depends on downstream acceptance.
Polyester-viscose yarn prices remain stable with modest volume, though 40s shows some momentum. Rayon yarn 10s trading volume is clearly better than other specifications, with prices adjusting steadily. Viscose staple fiber averages around 14,500 yuan/ton with stable prices, but rayon yarn is expected to face adjustment pressure ahead.
The core contradiction in the yarn market: cotton and viscose raw material ends are relatively stable, but the pace of end-user garment orders determines how long spinning mills can hold. Cotton yarn stability reflects demand support, while rayon yarn adjustment expectations stem from supply-side pressure.
Practical Implications for the Supply Chain
For weaving mills, raw material prices are in a direction-selection phase. Low polyester filament inventory means limited downside, but weak operating rates mean a catalyst is needed for upside. Maintaining low raw material inventories is rational, but mills need to guard against restocking stampedes if orders suddenly pick up.
For traders, the narrowing price spread in FDY fine denier and semi-dull varieties deserves attention. It means bargaining room in these categories is compressing and inventory-holding risk is rising. Conversely, weakness in regular DTY coarse denier and cationic yarn may present price negotiation opportunities.
For export-oriented businesses, stable staple fiber and viscose prices provide a stable anchor for quotations, but rayon yarn adjustment expectations suggest related orders need price flexibility built in.