The price gap between imported and domestically spun cotton yarn has become one of the most closely watched variables across China's coastal textile belts in September 2026. According to China Customs and industry public data, ICE cotton futures have corrected sharply since late August, while cotton prices in several Southeast Asian countries have declined for consecutive sessions. As a result, cotton yarn offers from Vietnam, India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Uzbekistan have broadly softened. The adjustment is not uniform: open-end yarns and coarse-count ring-spun yarns have seen larger cuts, while carded yarns of C32S and above, along with medium-to-high count combed yarns, have adjusted only modestly. Indian JC60S and JC80S, constrained by scarce bonded and shipment offers and persistently high costs, have remained weak but stable.
Structural Divergence in External Offers
The softening external market shows a clear pattern of "low counts leading the decline, high counts holding firm." Some large-scale branded mills in Vietnam were the first to cut offers, with second- and third-tier brands following suit, creating a cascade effect. Notably, Vietnamese OEC10S-21S FOB/CNF quotes are now more competitive than those from India, Pakistan and Indonesia. This price advantage has drawn attention from denim, knit underwear, knit sweaters, home textiles, corduroy and labor protection product manufacturers in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang.
This means the comparison logic for buyers is shifting. Demand for low-to-mid count yarns that previously relied on India and Pakistan as primary sources is partially moving toward Vietnam. For traders, this price window may not last long; once external offers stabilize or rebound, the current cost-performance advantage will narrow quickly.
Why Domestic Yarn Prices Are Holding Firm
In contrast to the external decline, domestic cotton yarn quotes have not followed Zhengzhou cotton futures and domestic spot cotton prices downward. With the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season arriving, mills have accelerated destocking, and some large-scale producers have even raised ex-factory prices for open-end yarns. The logic is that domestic mills have already eased earlier inventory pressure, and with peak-season order expectations, their willingness to hold prices has strengthened.
The result is a widening positive spread between the landed cost of imported yarn and domestic yarn quotes. For downstream weaving, fabric and garment factories, the cost-performance advantage of imported yarn has been further amplified. With short, scattered and small export orders still accounting for a high proportion, such orders are more sensitive to raw material flexibility and cost. Consequently, demand for low-to-mid count yarns from Vietnam, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh in coastal areas has continued to recover, and spot trading sentiment has become noticeably more active.
Transmission Judgments for the Supply Chain
From an upstream-downstream perspective, the decline in external offers has not immediately translated into a broad domestic yarn price drop. Instead, it has reinforced the substitution effect of imported yarn. For buyers, the current window is relatively favorable for locking in low-to-mid count imported yarn costs. For domestic mills, if peak-season destocking falls short of expectations, they may face further pressure from imported yarn, especially in open-end and coarse-count ring-spun categories.
For trading companies, two risk points deserve attention. First, geopolitical factors such as the US-Iran conflict could disrupt crude oil, natural gas, shipping and trade, potentially raising the cost of receiving and exporting cotton products in Southeast Asia and affecting the stability of external offers. Second, it remains uncertain whether the consecutive declines in Indian and Pakistani domestic cotton prices can be sustained; if their cotton prices stabilize, the price advantage of low-count external yarns will narrow.