Polyester filament sales rates have fallen to 30-40%, yet polyester plant inventories remain low — two signals appearing simultaneously suggest the market is building toward a directional move. Data from the Shengze and Jiaxing textile raw material hubs for September 12-13 reveals a contradictory picture: downstream weaving and texturing operations hold limited raw material stocks, but their willingness to chase higher prices is equally weak. This "low inventory plus low sales rate" combination has historically preceded upward price adjustments within one to two weeks.
Divergence Between Sales and Inventory
By product category, polyester filament specifications show clear divergence. POY150D/144F is quoted around 9,650 yuan/ton on a cash basis, with texturing mills still making small replenishment purchases, though intermingled POY sales remain weak. On the FDY side, 48D/48F has seen a sales recovery driven by high-density polyester taffeta lining demand, quoted at 10,650-10,800 yuan/ton, with price spreads between mills narrowing significantly — a detail suggesting mainstream mills are gaining pricing power.
Notably, semi-dull FDY is outperforming semi-bright and bright varieties, with 40D/48F seeing acceptable downstream demand, again pointing to high-density polyester taffeta fabrics. Bright FDY fine filaments have seen a sales rebound, particularly 30D/24F moving well for polyester-nylon blended fabrics. DTY sales slightly exceed POY, but conventional coarse-denier network yarn sales are weak, and differentiated cationic filament trading volumes are modest.
This divergence reflects structural changes in end-use fabric demand: high-density polyester taffeta and polyester-nylon fabric orders are relatively stable, while conventional varieties move slowly. For buyers, this means bargaining room for standard specifications may be narrowing, while supply elasticity for differentiated products remains ample.
Stability and Shifts in the Yarn Market
Cotton yarn sales are steady, with 21s and 32s still moving, the latter mainly used for air-jet fancy fabrics. Polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 prices are stable, but 80/10 and 90/10 specifications have seen slight upward adjustments, with 80/20 45s trading volume acceptable. Polyester-viscose yarn prices remain stable with modest volume, though 40s shows decent momentum.
Pure polyester yarn continues stable-to-firm, with polyester staple fiber price center edging up, the 1.56×38 cotton-type center price below 8,700 yuan/ton. Rayon yarn 10s trading volume is notably better than other specifications, prices adjusting steadily, with viscose staple fiber averaging around 14,500 yuan/ton.
The core signal on the yarn side: both cotton-type staple and viscose staple price centers are edging upward, but yarn prices have not followed suit. This indicates spinning mills are absorbing earlier raw material inventories, with profit margins under pressure. If staple fiber prices continue rising, yarn quotes will likely be forced to follow.
Impact on the Supply Chain
Water-jet loom operating rates are being maintained as much as possible, but weaving and texturing operations hold limited polyester filament stocks. Uncertainty on the raw material side makes downstream buyers cautious about chasing prices, yet polyester plants have low filament inventories. Considering multiple factors, short-term upward adjustment in polyester filament cannot be ruled out.
For buyers, this means if concentrated restocking occurs within the next one to two weeks, mainstream POY and FDY specifications may be the first to see price adjustments. For mills, the current low-inventory strategy avoids price-decline risks but may force acceptance of higher procurement costs during an upcycle. For export businesses, minor raw material cost fluctuations are not yet sufficient to trigger order quote adjustments, but if the uptrend extends to month-end, profit margins on autumn-winter fabric orders will come under pressure.