A polyester filament operating rate of 30-40% in Shengze and Jiaxing ahead of the traditional peak season is counterintuitive. Polyester plant inventories are not high, yet weavers are unwilling to chase prices, creating a standoff between buyers and sellers.
The Divergence: Why Low Inventory Isn't Driving Volume
From September 12 to 13, polyester filament markets were in adjustment mode with scattered trends. Most polyester plants kept quotes steady, with only a few raising prices, but daily invoiced volumes fell even below the estimated 30-40% operating rate.
What does this mean? Low inventory at the polyester end should support prices, and weavers and texturizers hold limited filament stocks, so restocking demand objectively exists. The problem lies in raw material uncertainty—companies fear that chasing highs will leave them with orders that don't materialize, preferring to operate with low raw material inventories.
For buyers, this mentality translates into persistently low operating rates at polyester plants. While inventory pressure is manageable, if sales remain sluggish, the sustainability of firm quotes comes into question.
Product Divergence: What's Moving, What's Under Pressure
By product, POY items including 50D/72F, 75D/72F, 75D/144F, 120D/192F and 150D/288F still see small-volume purchases from texturizers. POY150D/144F is quoted around 9,650 yuan/ton cash, while intermingled POY sales are weak.
FDY divergence deserves more attention. FDY48D/48F benefits from recovering sales of high-density polyester taffeta lining, quoted at 10,650-10,800 yuan/ton, with price gaps between mills narrowing notably. FDY100D and 128D differ greatly—oxford fabric consumption is large, 128D/36F moves well, while 75D/36F sales are average.
Bright FDY fine filaments are recovering, especially bright FDY30D/24F used for polyester-cotton blend fabrics. Matte FDY outperforms semi-dull and bright, with 40D/48F downstream demand acceptable. DTY moves slightly better than POY, but bright DTY multi-filament flat sales are quiet, regular DTY coarse filament network sales are weak, and differentiated cationic filament trading volume is small.
These product differences indicate downstream orders are not comprehensively recovering but concentrated in specific fabric categories. While weaving mills strive to maintain operating rates, purchasing strategies clearly favor just-in-time buying.
Yarn Market: Cotton Stable, Pure Polyester Firm, Viscose Pending Adjustment
The yarn segment is relatively stable. Cotton yarn sales are steady with prices adjusting moderately. 21s and 32s remain active, with 32s used for air-jet fancy fabrics. Polyester-cotton 65/35 prices are stable, while some 80/10 and 90/10 prices firm slightly, with 80/20 45s volume acceptable.
Polyester-viscose yarn prices remain stable with modest volume, though 40s shows momentum. Pure polyester yarn continues firm, polyester staple fiber price center edges up slightly, with 1.56*38 cotton-type centered below 8,700 yuan/ton.
Viscose yarn 10s trades noticeably better than other specifications, with prices adjusting moderately. Viscose staple fiber prices are stable, averaging around 14,500 yuan/ton. From the cost side, viscose staple stability provides temporary support for viscose yarn, but adjustment trends loom, a signal export-oriented mills should watch.
Short-Term Outlook: Upward Adjustment Probability Rising
Across both markets, polyester filament may see upward adjustment in the short term. The logic: polyester plant inventories are low, weavers and texturizers hold limited raw materials, and once order expectations improve, restocking demand could release in concentrated fashion.
But risks are equally clear—operating rates lingering at 30-40% suggest end demand has not truly started. Raw material uncertainty makes weavers cautious about chasing prices, and this caution itself caps upside potential.
For mills, the current strategy should be maintaining reasonable raw material inventories, neither overly bearish nor blindly chasing rallies. For buyers, narrowing price gaps in moving items like FDY48D/48F and 128D/36F mean shrinking bargaining room, requiring advance locking of volumes.