A polyester filament production-sales ratio of 30%-40% is not a normal reading in the run-up to peak season. On September 12-13, polyester plants in Shengze and Jiaxing — two major textile raw material hubs — kept quotations largely stable, with a few even raising prices slightly. Yet downstream buying remained slow, and same-day invoiced volumes were even lower. This divergence between production-sales and pricing suggests demand has not vanished; rather, price expectations and purchasing willingness are temporarily out of sync.
The Inventory Logic Behind the Divergence
On the supply side, polyester filament inventories at polymerization plants are at low levels, which is the core support for firm quotations. Low inventory means plants face no pressure to cut prices, but it also means supply flexibility is limited if downstream buyers rush to restock. Weaving and texturizing enterprises also hold small raw material positions. Water-jet loom operating rates are being maintained with effort, but uncertainty over raw material prices has clearly suppressed the willingness to chase higher purchases.
This "double-low inventory" pattern across the supply chain often signals one of two outcomes: either sustained weak demand eventually softens prices, or a trigger event sparks a restocking resonance that pushes prices up quickly. Judging from current attitudes among polyester plants, the probability of a short-term upward adjustment is building.
What Product Differentiation Reveals About Real Demand
Within polyester filament, different product categories are moving in different directions — and this differentiation is the best window into end-user demand. On the POY side, specifications such as 50D/72F, 75D/72F, 75D/144F, 120D/192F, and 150D/288F still see small-volume purchases from texturizers, with POY 150D/144F quoted at around 9,650 yuan/ton cash. Interlaced POY sales are weak. FDY shows even sharper divergence: 48D/48F, supported by recovering sales of high-density polyester taffeta lining, is quoted at 10,650-10,800 yuan/ton, with the price gap between mills narrowing noticeably. FDY 128D/36F moves relatively well on strong oxford fabric consumption, while 75D/36F sales are ordinary.
Notably, bright FDY fine denier — especially 30D/24F used in polyester-cotton blend fabrics — is clearly active. Semi-dull FDY outperforms both bright and semi-bright varieties overall, and 40D/48F sees decent downstream demand, again pointing to high-density polyester taffeta. DTY moves slightly better than POY, but bright DTY multi-filament flat yarn sales are quiet, conventional DTY coarse filament network yarn is weak, and differentiated cationic filament trading volume is small. These details indicate that current demand is concentrated in specific specifications and end-uses, not a broad recovery.
The yarn market shows similar structural characteristics. Cotton yarn sales are steady, with 21s and 32s still moving; 32s is mainly used in air-jet富贵纺 fabrics. Polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 prices are stable, while 80/10 and 90/10 prices are firming slightly, and 80/20 45s sees decent volume. Polyester-viscose yarn prices remain stable but volume is small, with 40s showing relatively more momentum. Pure polyester yarn continues firm-to-strong, with 1.56*38 cotton-type polyester staple centered below 8,700 yuan/ton. Rayon yarn 10s trades noticeably better than other specifications, viscose staple is stable at around 14,500 yuan/ton, but the rayon yarn market faces adjustment pressure ahead.
Practical Implications for Procurement and Production
Current market conditions mean different strategies for different participants. For buyers, low inventory combined with weak production-sales means the foundation for a sharp price rally is not solid — but polyester plants' firm pricing stance and low inventory also limit downside. This suggests staggered position-building is more prudent than one-time price locking. For weaving and texturizing mills, low raw material holdings represent the largest risk exposure; if orders are released in a concentrated manner, restocking costs could rise significantly.
From an export perspective, a potential upward shift in polyester filament price centers will directly transmit to fabric quotations, especially for linings and bag fabrics such as high-density polyester taffeta and oxford. Overseas buyers currently inquiring or in the sampling stage need to watch for the lagged impact of raw material price fluctuations on finished product quotes.