The number 900 yuan per barrel had never appeared on China's crude oil futures board until September 14. The main contract touched 908.7 yuan per barrel intraday, closing the morning session at 902 yuan with a single-day gain of 11.37%. For the textile industry, the real concern is not crude oil itself, but the end of the cost transmission chain: PX, PTA, polyester, and weaving—each link is under pressure.
The Breaking Point in the Cost Chain
The logic of crude oil transmitting price volatility downstream along the refining chain is clear and direct: crude oil-naphtha-PX-PTA forms a complete pathway. Yet in this rally, PTA has not surged in tandem with crude, and this "lagging" phenomenon exposes deep-seated contradictions within the industrial chain.
PTA units previously under maintenance have been restarting sequentially, industry operating rates are recovering, and social inventories have shown slight accumulation. Meanwhile, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season on the polyester end has yet to fully materialize, and terminal weaving orders are being released at a slower pace. What does this mean? A clear mismatch has formed between rising upstream costs and insufficient downstream absorption capacity, with PTA's upward elasticity firmly suppressed by supply-demand fundamentals.
From the perspective of industrial belt reactions, resistance to high-priced raw materials among polyester plants in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region is rising. Procurement strategies are becoming conservative, with buying focused mainly on essential restocking and speculative stockpiling willingness notably weakened. This cautious posture, in turn, constrains PTA trading volume.
The Substitution Game Between Cotton and Chemical Fibers
At the other end of the textile chain, ICE cotton finds itself in a more complex situation. The US cotton main contract has recently maintained a weak and range-bound pattern. Drought conditions in US cotton-growing regions and expectations of a downward revision to new-crop output provide some support, but global inventory data in the USDA supply-demand report came in above market expectations, and profit-taking pressure from longs persists.
The substitution relationship between cotton and polyester staple fiber is key to understanding current cotton price movements. When PTA drives up chemical fiber costs and polyester prices rise, textile enterprises tend to increase their cotton usage ratio, providing indirect demand support. But this logic holds only if terminal consumption remains stable. If overall textile end-consumer demand is weak, the strength of this substitution pull will be significantly diminished.
Currently, ICE cotton is more driven by global cotton planting, exports, and consumption fundamentals. The impact from crude oil is an indirect exogenous variable, acting more as a volatility amplifier rather than a directional driver. For buyers, this means cotton pricing anchors remain in supply and demand itself, and crude oil trends should not be the sole basis for decision-making.
The Profit Dilemma for Midstream Factories
The impact of elevated oil prices is not limited to futures markets. If oil prices remain high over the next six months, cost pressure will transmit outward level by level: rising upstream fuel and chemical raw material prices push up logistics costs, manufacturing raw material expenses rise accordingly, and corporate cash flow and investment willingness come under pressure.
The textile industry occupies a middle position in this transmission chain, facing particularly acute pressure. Upstream energy and chemical raw material prices are rising, while downstream terminal consumption transmission remains sluggish, squeezing midstream factory profit margins from both ends. The industry pattern of "strong upstream, weak downstream" is further accentuated, and some small and medium-sized weaving enterprises may face the dilemma of accepting loss-making orders or declining them.
From a macro perspective, market concerns over Middle East geopolitical conflicts represent the largest source of uncertainty. Rising navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to agitate global market sentiment, and international investment banks have divergent forecasts for extreme scenarios. Goldman Sachs believes Brent crude breaking through $120 per barrel is quite possible; Bank of America warns that if the conflict extends to year-end, Brent crude will likely fluctuate in the $95-120 per barrel range, and if Middle East energy infrastructure is damaged, oil prices could even spike to $150 per barrel.
But the characteristic of geopolitical premiums is that they arrive quickly and retreat just as fast. Once the situation signals de-escalation, previously accumulated risk premiums will dissipate rapidly, and oil prices may face a deep correction. For textile enterprises, this is both a risk and an opportunity—the key lies in whether they can lock in reasonable raw material costs amid the volatility.