Acrylonitrile rose 1.88% in a single day, with a year-on-year gain exceeding 32% — that figure stands out as virtually the only strong signal across the entire textile raw material board. Industry price monitoring on September 14 showed mixed movements among textile commodities, but the real story is not how much prices moved; it is who moved, who fell, and who stayed still.
The Structure of Gains and Losses
On the upside, acrylonitrile climbed from 10,633 yuan per ton to 10,833 yuan per ton, a daily gain of 1.88% and a year-on-year increase of 32.65%. Raw silk followed, edging up from 433,200 yuan per ton to 435,000 yuan per ton, a gain of 0.42%, though still down 6.88% year-on-year. Polyester staple fiber and PTA rose modestly by 0.27% and 0.13% respectively, with year-on-year gains of 32.78% and 50.54%.
On the downside, cotton lint was the sole decliner. It fell from 18,072 yuan per ton to 17,954 yuan per ton, a drop of 0.66%, yet remained 17.70% higher year-on-year. This suggests the decline is more of a high-level correction than a trend reversal.
More noteworthy is the flat cohort. Cotton yarn 21S, cotton yarn 32S, polyester yarn, viscose staple fiber, spandex, rayon yarn, polyester POY, DTY, FDY, nylon DTY, FDY, and POY — twelve varieties showed zero price movement. This broad stagnation indicates that mid-stream yarn and chemical fiber products are digesting earlier gains, with buyers and sellers locked in equilibrium.
The daily average change for the textile sector was just 0.12%, appearing calm on the surface. But year-on-year data reveal a different picture: PTA up over 50%, polyester staple fiber and acrylonitrile up over 32%, polyester POY and FDY up over 31%, and nylon POY up nearly 29%. Cost-side pressure has been accumulating for a full year.
Cost Transmission: Why Yarn Prices Won't Budge
The strength in acrylonitrile and PTA fundamentally reflects the pricing power of upstream petrochemical feedstocks. Acrylonitrile is the core raw material for acrylic fiber and is also used in ABS engineering plastics, with its price directly tied to crude oil and propylene markets. PTA is the bellwether of the polyester chain; every cent PTA rises lifts the cost floor for polyester filament and staple fiber.
But the problem is that upstream gains are not transmitting smoothly to the yarn stage. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices are frozen, and polyester yarn has not followed. This indicates limited acceptance capacity among downstream weaving and garment enterprises, with yarn mills choosing to protect operating rates over margins.
For buyers, this "hot upstream, cold midstream" pattern means yarn prices may remain suppressed in the short term. However, if upstream costs stay elevated, yarn mill margins will be further squeezed, forcing either production cuts or price hikes — both paths would alter the current supply-demand balance.
The slight decline in cotton lint offers another observation window. As the starting point of the cotton textile chain, cotton lint remains 17.70% higher year-on-year, indicating that fundamentals are not weak. The current dip is more about short-term capital and sentiment noise than a fundamental shift in supply and demand.
Capacity Cycles and Regional Industrial Belt Responses
From a capacity cycle perspective, the significant year-on-year gains in polyester and nylon are linked to a slowdown in new capacity additions in the chemical fiber sector over the past two years. The 50.54% year-on-year rise in PTA is particularly striking, reflecting narrowing supply elasticity in the upstream polyester chain. For industrial belts centered on chemical fiber fabrics, such as Keqiao and Shengze, rising raw material costs are forcing companies to adjust product mix toward differentiated and functional fabrics.
Home textile belts in Nantong and Shaoxing are more focused on cotton yarn and viscose staple fiber trends. Viscose staple fiber is up 10.67% year-on-year, and rayon yarn up 6.68%. Although daily prices are flat, the year-on-year gains mean home textile enterprises face significantly higher raw material costs than a year ago. If terminal retail prices cannot adjust accordingly, margin compression is inevitable.
Spandex is up 19.59% year-on-year, and nylon DTY up 22.35%. These figures point to a common trend: demand resilience for sportswear, casualwear, and elastic fabrics remains, but raw material price increases are testing the limits of downstream brands.