China's apparel exports delivered a better-than-expected performance in the first seven months of 2026, with cumulative exports reaching USD 89.45 billion, up 1% year-on-year, recovering 1.6 percentage points from the -0.6% growth in the first half. More notably, July alone saw exports of USD 16.45 billion, surging 8.5% year-on-year, 5.3 percentage points higher than June. This rebound occurred against a backdrop of overlapping US and EU tariffs and accelerating global supply chain restructuring, suggesting that the resilience of China's apparel sector is not a short-term phenomenon but the result of supply chain depth and category flexibility.
Category Divergence: Chemical-Fiber Knits Lead, Wovens Still Bottoming Out
By material and process, knit apparel exports reached USD 41.14 billion, up 2.5% year-on-year, with chemical-fiber knits at USD 21.65 billion, growing 3.4%, becoming the main driver of overall exports. Cotton knit apparel exports were USD 13.82 billion, down 0.1%, essentially flat. This divergence means overseas buyers have more rigid demand for chemical-fiber fast-response products, while cotton items are more sensitive to price and consumer preference fluctuations.
Woven apparel exports totaled USD 36.5 billion, down 1.8%, but the decline narrowed by 1.9 percentage points, indicating a bottom is forming. Chemical-fiber and cotton wovens fell 1.7% and 3.8% respectively, with the latter under more pressure. Apparel accessories exports were USD 84.7 billion, down 0.3%, with plastic and rubber apparel and accessories achieving 21.2% high-speed growth, reflecting continued expansion in demand for protective and functional accessories.
Sub-category performance was mixed: overcoats and parkas fell 10.5%, still the largest decline but continuously narrowing; suits, baby clothing, sportswear and swimwear, and scarves and ties achieved positive growth; bras, underwear and sleepwear, and dresses and skirts declined to varying degrees. For factories, this means capacity allocation needs to shift from heavy winter wear toward high-turnover categories like sports and baby clothing.
Market Restructuring: US Share Declines, Russia and Africa Emerge as New Growth Poles
Export markets showed clear divergence. In traditional markets, exports to the US reached USD 21.23 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year, but China's share of US apparel imports fell to 11.4% in January-June, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, while Vietnam's share rose to 20.7%. This contrast suggests that absolute export growth to the US stems more from expansion of total US imports rather than a recovery in China's share. Exports to the EU were USD 17.42 billion, up 1.3%, returning to positive growth; exports to Japan were USD 6.32 billion, down 1.2%, but China still holds a dominant 46.8% share of Japan's imports.
In emerging markets, exports to Russia and Africa surged 42.4% and 21.4% respectively, becoming the brightest growth poles; ASEAN, Latin America, the Middle East, and South Korea came under pressure with varying declines; Australia achieved slight growth. For buyers, this means supplier capacity is being diverted to emerging markets like Russia and Africa, potentially narrowing bargaining space for traditional European and American orders.
The clustering effect of domestic export provinces and cities strengthened. Zhejiang ranked first nationwide with USD 24.63 billion in exports, up 12.1%, accounting for 27.5% of the national total; Guangdong exports grew 6.4%. Jiangsu, Shandong, Xinjiang, and Fujian saw year-on-year declines. Hainan, Shanxi, and Heilongjiang experienced explosive export growth; Guangxi, Hubei, Sichuan, and Hunan saw larger declines. Significant regional divergence indicates that the completeness of industrial cluster supporting facilities and logistics efficiency are becoming core variables in export competitiveness.
Risks and Outlook: Policy Variables Dominate Second-Half Trends
External risks are concentrated in the second half. Overlapping US multi-tier tariffs, the EU's removal of cross-border parcel tax exemptions, accelerating global supply chain restructuring, and rising trade friction risks are all in play. The July export surge brings positive signals, but the industry recovery foundation remains unstable, with uneven category and regional performance. For textile enterprises, this means single-month data should not be used to judge a trend reversal; instead, attention should be paid to the lagging impact of policy changes on order flows.
From a supply chain transmission perspective, the strength of chemical-fiber knits and weakness of wovens will directly affect upstream procurement rhythms for chemical fibers and cotton yarn. The strengthening clustering effect in Zhejiang and Guangdong may further push up local labor and factory costs, forcing some capacity to shift to central and western China or overseas. Foreign trade enterprises need to pay close attention to overseas policy changes, strengthen compliance management, optimize global supply chain layout, and seize development opportunities amid uncertainty.