When Brazil captured nearly half of China's cotton import share, the map of global cotton trade had already been redrawn. China imported 1.585 million tonnes of cotton in 2025/26, a year-on-year increase of over 50%. This figure reflects not a simple demand rebound but the combined effect of quota policy, price spread structure and supply expectations.
Import Surge and Retreat: Policy and Market Rhythms
Quotas were the primary driver. In August 2025 and March 2026, authorities issued additional sliding-scale import quotas totaling 500,000 tonnes, opening channels for mill consumption. Meanwhile, wide domestic-international price spreads made imported cotton the preferred choice for factories.
Monthly trends clearly outlined the rhythm. Imports climbed month by month early in the season, peaking at 205,000 tonnes in January 2026. But restocking then slowed noticeably, and imports gradually declined. August imports reached 80,000 tonnes, down 12.1% month-on-month, extending July's downward trend. Cumulative imports for January-August 2026 totaled 1.107 million tonnes, up 88.9% year-on-year, but the growth rate is narrowing.
Three factors drove the decline: the domestic textile market entered its off-season, with mills buying hand-to-mouth; central reserve cotton auctions continued, substituting some import demand; and rising international prices narrowed the spread, eroding imported cotton's price advantage.
Shifting Source Landscape: Brazil Leads, Australia Gains Late
Brazil, Australia and the United States remained the main sources in 2025/26, but their trajectories diverged sharply. Brazilian cotton rose 68.2% year-on-year, capturing 49% share, up 5 percentage points, ranking first. Australian cotton grew 46.2%, taking 26% share, down 1 percentage point, second. US cotton fell 12.9%, with 9% share, down 6 percentage points.
Kazakhstan emerged as the dark horse, with imports up 1.5 times, taking 5% share, up 2 percentage points, becoming the fourth-largest source. The rise of Central Asian cotton signals that supply chain diversification is moving from rhetoric to actual procurement behavior.
In August, the monthly pattern reversed. Australian cotton continued arriving in large volumes, suited to high-end home textiles and combed fabrics, favored by large and medium mills. Monthly imports reached 60,000 tonnes, up 9.5% month-on-month, with over 70% share, up 14 percentage points, making it the top monthly source. Brazilian cotton fell sharply to just 6,000 tonnes, down 66% month-on-month. US cotton reached 7,000 tonnes, up 12-fold year-on-year, but from a very low base.
Trade modes also warrant attention. Bonded regulatory site imports grew 62.7%, taking 40% share, ranking first; special customs supervision zone logistics goods grew 89.1%, taking 32%. Together they exceed 70%, indicating firms prefer bonded and logistics channels to manage inventory and capital occupation.
Prices and Supply: Tightening Signals Emerge
August imported cotton landed costs rose overall, with the average price reaching $1,911/tonne, up 3.4% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year. US production concerns and weather disruptions pushed international prices higher, with US cotton leading gains, Australian quotes firm and Brazilian following modestly. Among major sources, Brazilian cotton was $1,685/tonne, US $2,237/tonne and Australian $1,933/tonne.
Downstream exports showed divergence. August textile and apparel exports totaled $28.57 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year but down 0.8% month-on-month. Apparel exports were $15.88 billion, down 3.5% month-on-month; textiles were $12.69 billion, up 2.8% month-on-month, driven by autumn-winter order deliveries and overseas restocking in the Northern Hemisphere. January-August 2026 cumulative exports reached $203.37 billion, up 3.1% year-on-year.
Global supply is turning tighter. USDA September data show 2025/26 global cotton consumption at 26.373 million tonnes, exports at 9.924 million tonnes, up 7.5% year-on-year, ending stocks at 16.396 million tonnes, with a stock-to-use ratio of 62.2%. For 2026/27, production is projected at 25.543 million tonnes, consumption at 26.763 million tonnes, ending stocks falling to 15.21 million tonnes, with the stock-to-use ratio dropping to 56.8%, indicating continued tightening.
For Australia, 2025/26 cumulative exports reached about 1.217 million tonnes, up 7.3% year-on-year, with China as the largest importer at 440,000 tonnes, or 36.1%. But ABARES projects 2026/27 Australian output at just 679,000 tonnes, down 34% year-on-year, mainly due to dry weather and reduced irrigation water. This means Australian supply to China could tighten notably in the coming season.