RMB 29,000 per tonne. When spandex 40D bright yarn is quoted at the same number in Wenzhou, Xinxiang and Xiamen on the same day, it is no coincidence. It is the cost floor speaking. Chinese customs data and industry public data show that the price range of PTMEG and pure MDI, the two key raw materials for spandex, has continued to narrow, with the cash cost of 40D product roughly between RMB 27,000 and 28,500 per tonne. Three suppliers quoting the same level means the current price is already close to the break-even point for most mills, leaving very limited room for further decline.
Three Hubs, One Price: Cost Rigidity or Competitive Truce
From the perspective of industrial clusters, Wenzhou, Xinxiang and Xiamen belong to three major spandex agglomeration areas in East China, Central China and Southeast China, each relying on different raw material supply chains and downstream markets. Huafeng Chemical's Wenzhou base is close to PTMEG capacity, Xinxiang Chemical Fibre has a relatively complete chain from PTMEG to spandex under its Egret brand, and Xiamen Lilong relies more on purchased raw materials. The three companies have different cost structures yet quote the same price, indicating that competition has shifted from a price war to a standoff near the cost line.
For upstream raw material suppliers, flat spandex prices mean that PTMEG and pure MDI price hike demands are difficult to pass downstream. For downstream weaving mills, the cost of spandex yarn at RMB 29,000 per tonne accounts for roughly 15% to 30% of the total cost of elastic fabrics, depending on the category. At this price level, fabric mills can hardly improve profits by squeezing spandex prices and can only turn to adjusting weaving processes or seeking alternative elastic fibers.
Inventory and Demand: The Real Drivers Behind the Flat Price
The capacity expansion of the spandex industry over the past two years is the key background for understanding current prices. Industry public data shows that domestic spandex capacity has exceeded 1.2 million tonnes per year, while apparent consumption growth has slowed to single digits. Under the supply-demand imbalance, prices should have continued to fall, but the 40D quote has stabilized at RMB 29,000 per tonne because most mills are already in a loss or thin-margin position, and further price cuts would trigger production reductions.
Demand-side signals are equally complex. The use of elastic fabrics in sportswear, underwear, medical protection and other fields remains rigid, but the recovery of traditional apparel export orders is weaker than expected. Chinese customs data indicates that in the first three quarters of this year, exports of chemical fiber filament fabrics grew slightly year-on-year, but unit prices declined, suggesting that overseas buyers remain price-sensitive. As an auxiliary material, spandex demand fluctuations are amplified by downstream finished goods inventory, and weaving mills are not keen to restock, mostly purchasing on a need basis.
This means that the quote of RMB 29,000 per tonne is neither a demand-driven high nor a post-cost-collapse bottom, but an uncomfortable middle ground for both supply and demand sides. For mills, maintaining the quote is about preserving cash flow and customer relationships; for buyers, accepting the quote is because alternatives are limited and switching costs are high.
Transmission to Upstream and Downstream and Expectations
From the perspective of industrial chain transmission, flat spandex prices suppress upstream PTMEG and pure MDI, while the impact on downstream elastic fabric and apparel costs is relatively moderate. What truly deserves attention is the cash flow situation of small and medium-sized spandex mills. At RMB 29,000 per tonne, enterprises with integrated supporting facilities can still maintain positive cash flow, while small and medium-sized manufacturers relying on purchased raw materials and facing heavy equipment depreciation pressure are experiencing continuous bleeding. The window for industry consolidation may further open in the next two quarters.
For traders, the current price spread is compressed, and the risk-reward ratio of stockpiling for price gains is unfavorable. Spandex storage conditions are relatively flexible, but the cost of capital occupation cannot be ignored in the current interest rate environment. A more pragmatic strategy is to shorten payment terms and accelerate turnover rather than betting on a price rebound.