1.585 million tonnes. That is the final tally for China's cotton imports in the 2025/26 season, a year-on-year increase of over 50%. Behind this figure lies a combination of policy-driven quota releases and market-led choices shaped by persistently wide domestic-international price spreads. For textile manufacturers, import availability has improved, but the price center of gravity is also shifting upward, requiring a recalibration of procurement logic.
Quota Release and Price Spreads: The Twin Engines of Import Growth
In August 2025 and March 2026, authorities issued additional sliding-duty cotton import quotas totaling 500,000 tonnes, directly opening incremental space for mill demand. Meanwhile, the domestic-international price spread remained elevated, giving foreign cotton a clear cost advantage that naturally pushed enterprises toward higher import ratios.
On a monthly basis, imports climbed steadily early in the season, peaking at 205,000 tonnes in January 2026. Restocking then slowed markedly, with imports gradually declining. August arrivals totaled 80,000 tonnes, down 12.1% month-on-month but still up 10.7% year-on-year. Cumulative imports for January-August reached 1.107 million tonnes, up 88.9% year-on-year.
The slowdown is not hard to explain. The domestic textile market entered its off-season, with mills buying hand-to-mouth and showing little appetite for stockpiling. Central reserve cotton auctions continued, substituting for some foreign cotton demand as quota-constrained mills turned to reserve bidding. Rising international prices narrowed the spread, eroding the cost advantage of imported cotton. These three factors combined to shift import momentum from aggressive in the first half to cautious in the second.
Source Restructuring: Brazil on Top, Australia Holding Premium, Central Asia Gaining
In 2025/26, Brazilian cotton surged 68.2% year-on-year, capturing 49% of the total, up 5 percentage points, to rank first. Brazil's competitiveness lies in stable supply and attractive pricing, making it a compelling choice for mills producing large volumes of medium and low-count yarns.
Australian cotton rose 46.2% year-on-year, accounting for 26% and ranking second. Australian cotton is positioned toward the premium end, mainly serving combed fabric and high-end home textile production, and is favored by large and medium-sized mills. In August, Australian arrivals reached 60,000 tonnes, over 70% of the month's total, up 14 percentage points month-on-month, making it the top source for that month.
US cotton, by contrast, fell 12.9% year-on-year, with its share dropping to 9%, down 6 percentage points. Kazakhstan and other Central Asian origins saw imports rise 1.5-fold, with their share climbing to 5%, becoming the fourth-largest source. This shift means China's cotton supply map is evolving from the traditional Brazil-Australia-US triangle toward greater diversification.
Trade Modes and Price Trends: Bonded Channels Dominate, Cost Center Rises
Bonded regulatory warehouse imports grew 62.7% year-on-year, accounting for 40% and ranking first. Customs special supervision zone logistics goods rose 89.1%, accounting for 32% and ranking second. General trade grew 18.4%, accounting for 18%, down 5 percentage points. The strength of bonded channels indicates that enterprises increasingly favor the flexibility and capital efficiency of bonded zones to manage raw material inventories.
On pricing, the average landed cost of imported cotton rose to $1,911/tonne in August, up 3.4% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year. US production concerns and weather disruptions pushed international prices higher, with US cotton leading gains, Australian quotes firm, and Brazilian cotton rising modestly. By origin, Brazilian cotton stood at $1,685/tonne, US at $2,237/tonne, and Australian at $1,933/tonne. For buyers, an upward shift in the cost center is now a certainty.
Global Supply-Demand Turning Tighter: New Season Pressures Loom
The global cotton supply-demand landscape is shifting. In 2025/26, global consumption reached 26.373 million tonnes and exports 9.924 million tonnes, up 7.5% year-on-year, with ending stocks at 16.396 million tonnes and a stock-to-use ratio of 62.2%, revised down from mid-year estimates.
More notably, expectations for 2026/27 point to global production of 25.543 million tonnes against consumption of 26.763 million tonnes, with ending stocks falling to 15.21 million tonnes and the stock-to-use ratio dropping further to 56.8%. Continuously tightening supply-demand means international cotton prices will likely find strong medium-term support, and the cost advantage of imported cotton may narrow further.
In Australia, cotton exports reached approximately 1.217 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 7.3% year-on-year, with China as the largest importer, absorbing 440,000 tonnes, or 36.1%. However, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Australia's 2026/27 cotton production is forecast at just 679,000 tonnes, down 34% year-on-year, mainly due to dry weather and reduced irrigation water supply. This means Australian cotton availability will contract significantly, putting direct pressure on high-end fabric mills that rely on it.
Textile exports also show divergence. In August, textile and apparel exports totaled $28.57 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year but down 0.8% month-on-month. Textile exports reached $12.69 billion, up 2.4% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month, driven by autumn-winter order deliveries in the Northern Hemisphere and overseas restocking. Apparel exports totaled $15.88 billion, down 3.5% month-on-month but up 12.3% year-on-year, with slower shipment momentum. Cumulative January-August exports reached $203.37 billion, up 3.1% year-on-year.