Within a single week, PTA posted a year-on-year gain of over 50% while cotton yarn 21S and 32S both declined. The degree of divergence inside the textile raw materials sector has exceeded what seasonal fluctuations would normally explain.
Divergence: Polyester and Cotton Yarn Chains Move Apart
According to China Customs and publicly available industry data, five textile commodities rose week-on-week in week 38 of 2026. PTA led with a 1.39% gain, followed by viscose staple fiber at 0.41% and polyester POY at 0.40%. Viscose spun yarn and polyester DTY edged up modestly. Meanwhile, five commodities declined. Polyester FDY fell 1.57%, cotton yarn 21S dropped 1.27% and cotton yarn 32S lost 1.20%. The sector averaged -0.11% for the week — seemingly flat, yet deeply divided beneath the surface.
This split is not accidental. PTA started the week near 7,049 yuan per ton and ended around 7,147 yuan, a year-on-year surge of 54.21%, indicating that cost-side support remains strong. Polyester FDY, by contrast, retreated from 9,786 yuan to 9,633 yuan per ton, yet still held a 35.80% year-on-year gain — a high-level pullback rather than a trend reversal.
Cotton yarn tells a different story. Both 21S and 32S fell by roughly 300 yuan per ton during the week, with year-on-year gains of only 5.89% and 5.31% respectively — the weakest growth in the entire textile sector. This means cotton spinning mills are neither benefiting from upstream price increases nor able to pass costs downstream. Margins are being squeezed from both sides.
Why Cost Transmission Fails at the Cotton Yarn Stage
The upward logic in the polyester chain is relatively clear: PTA, as the core feedstock for polyester filament and staple fiber, directly pushes up downstream product quotes when its price rises. Polyester POY and DTY follow suit. The simultaneous strength in viscose staple fiber and viscose spun yarn reflects continued substitution demand for regenerated cellulose fibers in certain applications.
The problem for cotton yarn lies on the demand side. Current downstream weaving and apparel orders are predominantly short-run and small-batch, and buyers show extremely low tolerance for cotton yarn price increases. Cotton lint dipped 0.02% during the week but remained up 15.18% year-on-year, offering no clear signal of raw material price relief. Yet yarn mills, seeking to recover cash and reduce inventory, have little choice but to concede on price.
Notably, raw silk held flat at 435,600 yuan per ton, down 6.17% year-on-year — one of the few textile commodities in negative territory on an annual basis. This signals that demand recovery for high-end natural fibers remains fragile, indirectly weighing on sentiment in the cotton yarn market.
On a year-on-year basis, the nylon chain stands out. Nylon POY gained 38.88%, while nylon FDY and DTY both rose over 26%. Spandex advanced 19.59%, and polyester staple fiber climbed 33.75%. Against this backdrop, cotton yarn's single-digit annual growth is striking, confirming that the cotton textile chain has persistently lagged the chemical fiber sector in pricing power over the past year.
Transmission Impact on Industrial Clusters and Supply Chains
Factories in chemical fiber fabric clusters such as Keqiao and Shengze face rising feedstock costs alongside difficulty in raising finished product prices. The modest gains in polyester POY and DTY can still be absorbed through order price adjustments, but if PTA continues to strengthen, filament mills' processing margins will be further compressed.
Cotton spinning mills in Nantong, Foshan and other textile belts face more direct pressure. Falling cotton yarn prices combined with fragmented orders may force some small and medium-sized mills to reduce operating rates. For downstream weavers, weaker cotton yarn prices lower raw material procurement costs in the short term, but if mill production cuts lead to tighter supply later, cotton yarn prices could rebound within one to two months.
Exporters need to watch the structural differences in year-on-year gains. Polyester products generally show annual increases exceeding 30%, meaning USD-denominated export quotes face upward pressure, while overseas buyers typically lag by a quarter in accepting price hikes. Cotton yarn and cotton product export quotes are relatively stable, but margins are more exposed to exchange rate and shipping cost volatility.