When the weekly average price change settled at a negligible -0.11%, the internal divergence in textile raw materials was far more dramatic than the headline number suggested. According to China Customs and industry public data, during week 38 of 2026 (September 21-25), PTA posted a 1.39% weekly gain as the only clearly rising variety in the textile sector, while cotton yarn 21S and 32S fell 1.27% and 1.20% respectively, and polyester FDY dropped 1.57% to bottom the list. Five varieties rose, five fell, and seven remained flat — a "three-way split" rarely seen in weekly data over the past two years.
Chemical Fibers vs. Cotton: Two Pricing Logics Collide
PTA's rise is no isolated event. Its year-on-year gain of 54.21% means current prices have climbed by more than half compared to the same period last year. Polyester POY is up 34.96% year-on-year, polyester DTY up 31.46%, and nylon POY up 38.88%. The entire chemical fiber chain shows highly consistent year-on-year strength, driven by both a higher crude oil cost center and supply contractions from maintenance shutdowns.
Cotton-based products tell the opposite story. Cotton lint edged down 0.02% weekly, with a year-on-year gain of only 15.18% — less than one-third of PTA's rise. More notably, cotton yarn 21S and 32S posted year-on-year gains of just 5.89% and 5.31%, the weakest among all varieties with available data. This means yarn mills are almost unable to pass upstream cost pressures downstream.
Viscose staple fiber offers a middle reference point. Its modest 0.41% weekly gain, alongside an 11.13% year-on-year increase, suggests the viscose yarn chain's pricing power sits between chemical fibers and pure cotton. Viscose yarn rose 0.27% weekly and 6.97% year-on-year, also showing a "cost-push, demand-drag" pattern.
Year-on-Year vs. Week-on-Week Divergence: Who Absorbs the Cost Pressure?
Taking a longer view, a sharper contradiction emerges. Polyester staple fiber is up 33.75% year-on-year but fell 0.56% weekly; polyester FDY is up 35.80% year-on-year yet led weekly declines at 1.57%. This "big annual gain, weekly pullback" combination suggests accumulated increases are meeting demand-side resistance.
For yarn mills, the pressure is twofold. Upstream PTA and polyester POY are still rising, but downstream cotton yarn is falling. Taking 32S cotton yarn as an example, the price dropped from 25,100 yuan to 24,800 yuan at week's end. A 200-yuan decline may seem small, but converted to per-ton processing margins, it could mean hundreds of yuan in compressed profit. Flat varieties like raw silk (435,600 yuan), spandex (29,000 yuan), and nylon DTY (18,020 yuan) reflect a "wait-and-see" stalemate — neither buyers nor sellers want to break the deadlock first.
From an industrial belt perspective, the divergence hits regions unevenly. Chemical fiber hubs like Shengze and Xiaoshan benefit from polyester filament's 30%-plus year-on-year gains, enjoying relatively ample book profits. Pure cotton spinning clusters in Shandong and Henan face a double squeeze from high raw material costs and weak yarn prices. Procurement rhythms at the Keqiao fabric market also diverge: inquiry activity for chemical fiber fabrics outpaces pure cotton.
Practical Impact on Buyers and Exporters
The core contradiction is whether chemical fiber strength can persist and when cotton yarn weakness will bottom out. From year-on-year data, chemical fibers have accumulated large gains and need genuine end-order support to advance further. Cotton yarn's roughly 5% annual gain suggests limited downside, but equally limited upward drive.
For exporters, exchange rate and ocean freight factors combined with raw material divergence are narrowing the quotation window. Chemical fiber orders locked at current raw material prices should reserve at least 3% to 5% cost escalation space. Cotton orders are relatively stable, but watch for yarn mills dumping at low prices to recover cash — this could create short-term buying opportunities or disrupt existing price systems.