The simultaneous strength in the polyester chain and weakness in cotton yarn is more telling than the overall 0.11% weekly decline. According to China Customs and publicly available industry data, in week 38 of 2026, PTA led gains with a 1.39% weekly rise, followed by viscose staple fiber at 0.41% and polyester POY at 0.40%. On the losing side, polyester FDY fell 1.57%, while cotton yarn 21S and 32S dropped 1.27% and 1.20% respectively. Year-on-year, PTA is up 54.21% and nylon POY up 38.88%, while cotton yarn 21S has gained only 5.89%. This gap points to a core tension: costs are pushing up, demand is pulling down.
The Tug-of-War Between Cost Push and Demand Drag
The polyester chain's rise is not isolated. PTA's over-50% year-on-year gain means the transmission from crude oil to PX to PTA has remained tight for a year, and polyester POY's 34.96% and DTY's 31.46% year-on-year increases show cost pressure has fully permeated the polyester fiber segment. For downstream weavers, this means raw material procurement is consuming significantly more cash flow, especially for silk-like and sportswear fabric producers in Shengze and Keqiao, where profit margins are being further squeezed.
In contrast, cotton yarn remains weak. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S fell 1.27% and 1.20% during the week, with year-on-year gains of only around 5%, far below chemical fiber products. Cotton lint was nearly flat, down 0.02% weekly but up 15.18% year-on-year, yet cotton yarn has been unable to follow, indicating that spinning margins are being compressed. Weak demand from home textile and knitting clusters in Nantong and Gaoyang is the direct cause of price pressure.
Notably, viscose staple fiber rose 0.41% weekly and spun viscose yarn followed with a 0.27% gain, up 11.13% and 6.97% year-on-year respectively. The moderate uptrend in the viscose chain partly reflects substitution demand—as polyester prices stay high and cotton yarn weakens, downstream inquiries for viscose yarns have increased, but the limited gains suggest substitution has not yet reached scale.
Industrial Cluster Reactions and Upstream-Downstream Transmission
From an industrial cluster perspective, the strength in polyester raw materials most directly affects weaving clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Polyester POY and DTY rising in tandem means higher spot raw material costs for texturing and weaving mills, while fabric price increases typically lag by two to four weeks. If end-user apparel orders fail to pick up simultaneously, cash flow pressure on the weaving segment will intensify around mid-October.
The decline in cotton yarn is building inventory pressure on spinning bases in Shandong, Henan, and Xinjiang. Cotton yarn 32S ended the week at 24,800 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan from the start, while cotton lint barely moved, narrowing spinning margins. If downstream knitting and home textile firms continue to purchase only on a need-to basis, cotton yarn inventories could climb further, forcing spinners to cut prices to destock.
In the export dimension, PTA and nylon POY's sharp year-on-year gains mean the cost base for exported apparel made primarily from chemical fibers has risen significantly. For exporters quoting in US dollars, the combined effect of higher raw material costs and exchange rate fluctuations could erode the price competitiveness of some mid-to-low-end chemical fiber apparel. Cotton products have relatively stable costs, but the recovery strength of overseas orders remains the key variable.