On September 25, 2026, the textile commodity market witnessed a rare phenomenon: all 17 monitored varieties recorded zero daily price change. Yet beneath this calm surface, year-on-year data reveals turbulent undercurrents—PTA surged 54.21%, acrylonitrile rose 36.10%, polyester FDY climbed 35.80%, and nylon POY jumped 38.88%. This "flat daily, rising yearly" pattern reflects a deep stalemate between cost-push pressures and weak demand.
The Tug-of-War Behind the Flatline
From the upstream perspective, PTA and acrylonitrile posted year-on-year gains of 54.21% and 36.10% respectively, directly elevating the cost baseline for downstream polyester and nylon. Polyester staple fiber, POY, and DTY all recorded annual increases between 31% and 35%, while nylon series products generally rose over 26%. This means the price center for chemical fibers has shifted significantly upward over the past year, and the raw material cost pressure on factories has not been alleviated by the recent flatline.
However, the zero daily change indicates a lack of directional drivers. On one hand, costs provide rigid support, limiting room for price cuts; on the other, terminal textile and apparel consumption remains insufficiently recovered, with downstream buyers reluctant to accept high raw material prices, resulting in mostly small, need-based orders. This buyer-seller standoff has trapped prices in a tug-of-war.
Notably, cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose only 5.89% and 5.31% year-on-year, far below chemical fiber varieties. This reflects relatively moderate price transmission from cotton, with raw cotton up 15.18%, but yarn producers' pricing power constrained by weak terminal orders. In contrast, raw silk was the sole decliner, down 6.17%, suggesting an independent supply-demand loosening in the silk category.
Industrial Belt Reactions and Upstream-Downstream Transmission
Chemical fiber fabric clusters in Keqiao and Shengze are cautious about the flat raw material prices. With polyester and nylon series posting annual gains exceeding 30%, weaving mills face high inventory costs, yet grey fabric prices struggle to follow, compressing processing margins to near break-even for some factories. This "high raw material, low finished product" scissors gap is accelerating industry consolidation.
The Nantong home textile belt faces different pressures. Polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber, key materials for bedding filling and fabrics, rose 33.75% and 11.13% year-on-year respectively, driving up production costs for quilts and pillows. However, home textile consumption is highly seasonal, and with the autumn-winter stocking season nearing its end, buyers are more sensitive to price hikes, potentially diverting some orders to substitute materials or delaying purchases.
The export side is more complex. RMB exchange rate fluctuations combined with high annual raw material costs are eroding the competitiveness of export quotes. For polyester products especially, annual gains exceeding 30% are difficult for overseas buyers to fully absorb, and some long-term orders may face renegotiation. Spandex up 19.59% and rayon yarn up 6.97% add further pressure on export costs for sportswear and underwear categories.