The cost support for polyester filament is being rapidly pulled away as polymerization costs fall from highs. Since the third quarter, filament prices have almost entirely followed raw material fluctuations, lacking independent drivers from supply and demand. When the cost side loosens, producers' confidence in holding prices up is clearly insufficient. As the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays approach, downstream players have not shown the usual concentrated stockpiling wave; instead, they maintain just-in-time purchasing due to low order visibility. This means the seemingly stable quotes before the holiday mask a quiet expansion of negotiation space.
The Tug-of-War Between Cost and Supply-Demand
On the cost side, the decline in polymerization raw material prices directly weakens the pricing anchor for filament. The previous logic supporting the market was "if costs don't collapse, prices won't fall," but this logic is now failing. Processing profits at polyester plants are compressed, yet continuing to hold prices high risks greater order loss.
On the supply side, filament plant operating rates remain relatively high, while downstream texturing and weaving utilization has not kept pace. Weaving enterprises in industrial belts such as Keqiao and Shengze report a slowdown in new orders, mostly small-batch and multi-batch. This supply-demand mismatch leads to gradual inventory accumulation at plants, especially for POY and FDY, where pressure is more evident.
On the demand side, weak stockpiling willingness for the dual holidays is the core contradiction. In previous years, downstream players would lock in some supply before the holiday, but this year, constrained by slow recovery in terminal apparel orders and cautious ordering from foreign trade clients, weaving enterprises are generally unwilling to carry extra inventory. The close spacing of the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays further disrupts stockpiling rhythms.
Industrial Belt Reactions and Price Transmission
Mainstream transaction prices in major production areas like Keqiao and Shengze have shown signs of loosening. Although plant quotes nominally remain stable, actual discounts have widened, with some varieties offering concessions of around 100 yuan per ton. This "stable quotes but hidden discounts" approach aims to maintain market confidence while preemptively addressing post-holiday inventory buildup.
From an upstream-downstream transmission perspective, price fluctuations on the raw material side are gradually permeating the filament segment. If polymerization costs continue to decline, the filament price center will inevitably shift downward. For downstream weaving enterprises, lower raw material costs are ostensibly positive, but if terminal orders do not simultaneously increase, profit improvement will be limited.
In foreign trade, overseas customers are highly price-sensitive. If the RMB exchange rate remains stable, filament export quotes may adjust in tandem with domestic prices. However, some overseas buyers may delay orders, waiting for clearer signals of a price bottom.
Post-Holiday Market Outlook
Post-holiday inventory pressure is producers' biggest concern. If downstream consumption during the holiday falls short of expectations, plant inventories will rise to high levels, and then price cuts may shift from hidden to explicit. Conversely, if terminal orders show seasonal recovery after the holiday, the market could stabilize in a new balance between cost and supply-demand.
Historically, the fourth quarter marks the tail end of the traditional peak season, but this year's "Golden September and Silver October" lacks strength, with no explosive demand. The filament market is likely to remain range-bound and weak, with price fluctuation ranges depending on further polymerization cost trends and the sustainability of downstream restocking.