18,350 yuan per metric ton. That was the nylon FDY benchmark on September 25, a full 7.94% above the level at the start of the month. Placed against the past year's range, the figure is neither cheap nor extreme: the annual low was 14,175 yuan/mt, the high 19,950 yuan/mt, and the median 17,062.5 yuan/mt. The current price sits in the mid-high band, with 1,600 yuan of headroom below the yearly peak but 4,175 yuan above the floor. For the supply chain, the real concern is not the absolute level but the slope of this rally.
Price Structure: Cost Push Meets Supply Tightening
Industry data suggests the nylon FDY uptrend is not an isolated move. Caprolactam prices have stayed firm, and rising chip costs have directly squeezed the spinning margin. The annual average for nylon FDY is around 16,037.5 yuan/mt, meaning the current price is more than 14% above the mean, signaling that this rally has moved beyond normal fluctuation into a phase driven by both cost pressure and supply contraction.
Supply-side tightening is equally important. Some major mills had proactively cut operating rates during the earlier low-price period, drawing down inventories substantially and leaving marketable cargo relatively tight. When seasonal restocking emerged on the demand side, the mismatch quickly amplified price elasticity. This means future direction depends not only on costs but also on marginal changes in mill utilization. Once operating rates rebound quickly, upward momentum will weaken noticeably.
For downstream weavers, raw material typically accounts for over 60% of costs. If a near-8% monthly rise in FDY cannot be passed through to fabric prices, margins will erode fast. Small and mid-sized mills making standard products, with weak bargaining power, are most vulnerable to a lose-on-every-order situation.
Industrial Cluster Transmission: Pressure Testing in Keqiao and Shengze
Keqiao and Shengze are China's two core nylon fabric clusters. Keqiao leans toward fashion womenswear fabrics, while Shengze specializes in sports, casual and functional textiles. After the rapid raw material increase, fabric traders in the two regions reacted differently: those making differentiated, functional products could re-quote on new orders, while those making homogeneous products faced both customer pressure and rising input costs.
In terms of transmission timing, fabric price adjustments typically lag raw materials by two to four weeks. If this rally stabilizes after the National Day holiday, the fabric side can likely complete a mild round of price increases. If prices continue to climb, some small and mid-sized mills may cut production and wait, which would in turn dampen FDY demand. Once such negative feedback forms, high prices become hard to sustain.
It is worth noting that the spread between nylon FDY and polyester filament is also widening. For buyers, when nylon's cost-performance weakens, some applications will shift back to polyester or blends, reducing nylon's demand rigidity. Changes in the spread structure often reveal true demand strength better than a single product's price.
Trend Judgment: Q4 Likely Firm, but Chasing Highs Gets Riskier
Taking cost, supply and demand together, nylon FDY is likely to stay in the mid-high range in Q4, with a bias toward firmness. Supporting factors include firm upstream costs, low industry inventories and seasonal demand inertia. Restraining factors include limited terminal consumption recovery, squeezed weaving margins and substitution effects from alternative materials.
In terms of positioning, the current price is just one step from the yearly high of 19,950 yuan/mt. A break above the previous high could trigger sentiment-driven short-term spikes, but fundamentals do not support a sustained one-way rally. For all players in the chain, rather than betting on the top, the priority should be cost management and order structure optimization.