The polyester chain and the cotton yarn chain moved in nearly opposite directions within the same week, a divergence rarely seen in the textile raw material market over the past two years. According to industry public data for week 38 of 2026 (September 21-25), the textile sector recorded five gainers and five decliners, with an average weekly change of -0.11%. On the surface, the market appeared calm, but the internal structural divergence far exceeded what the aggregate figure suggests.
Price Structure: Polyester Leads Gains, Cotton Yarn Stands Alone in Decline
PTA topped the gainers with a weekly rise of 1.39%, closing at 7,147.50 yuan per ton, up 54.21% year-on-year. Viscose staple fiber and polyester POY posted gains of 0.41% and 0.40% respectively, with rayon yarn and polyester DTY edging up. On the losing side, polyester FDY led the decline at -1.57%, while cotton yarn 21S and 32S fell 1.27% and 1.20% respectively. Polyester staple fiber and lint cotton slipped marginally.
Notably, on a year-on-year basis, the polyester and nylon chains generally gained over 30% — polyester POY up 34.96%, polyester FDY up 35.80%, nylon POY up 38.88% — while cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose only 5.89% and 5.31%. This means the cost escalation on the raw material side over the past year has been almost entirely absorbed by the chemical fiber chain, while the cotton spinning chain shows markedly weaker price pass-through capability.
Raw silk, spandex, acrylonitrile, nylon DTY/FDY/POY and polyester yarn all closed flat for the week. This broad stagnation is not a signal of stable demand, but rather a fragile equilibrium temporarily reached between buyers and sellers along the cost line and order volume.
Roots of Divergence: Misalignment Between Cost Drivers and Order Drags
The upward logic of the polyester chain is relatively clear. As the source of the polyester industrial chain, PTA's price increase directly raises the production costs of polyester POY and DTY, and the year-on-year gain of over 50% indicates that upstream raw material strength is not a short-term phenomenon. For factories, this means processing margins in the polyester filament segment continue to be compressed, and quotation adjustments must closely follow raw material procurement windows, otherwise they risk losing money on orders they take.
The decline in cotton yarn points to a different logic. As conventional varieties for knitting and weaving, the price weakness of 21S and 32S typically reflects insufficient orders in the downstream weaving segment. With year-on-year gains of only around 5%, combined with a weekly decline of over 1.2%, cotton spinning enterprises are neither able to pass cotton costs downstream nor free from finished goods inventory pressure. Lint cotton prices fell only 0.02% this week, yet the spread between cotton yarn and cotton is narrowing, further squeezing yarn mill margins.
The leading decline of polyester FDY reveals localized capacity digestion pressure. In contrast to POY's rise, FDY's weakness indicates that the supply-demand dynamics of different filament varieties have already diverged, with supply increments in some specifications potentially outpacing downstream absorption.
Practical Impact on Procurement and Production
From a procurement perspective, the strength of the polyester chain means cost support for polyester fabrics is unlikely to loosen in the short term, particularly for POY and DTY-related varieties where downside room is limited. The weakness in cotton yarn, however, offers a temporary bargaining window for knitting and weaving factories, though vigilance is needed regarding potential quality fluctuations and delivery risks behind low-priced yarn.
From an export perspective, differences in year-on-year gains will directly reflect in quotation competitiveness. Chemical fiber products face significantly compressed room for price concessions due to high raw material costs; cotton products have relatively moderate raw material costs, but the pace of overseas order recovery remains the key variable determining actual transaction volumes.
Overall, this week's -0.11% average change masks intense internal structural adjustments. For all links in the industrial chain, monitoring composite indices alone is no longer sufficient — decisions must drill down into the supply-demand and cost structures of specific varieties.