On September 25, a curious signal emerged in China's textile commodity market: every monitored item posted a flat day-on-day change, yet the year-on-year figures tore open a widening gap between synthetic fibers and natural fibers.
The Illusion of a Daily Freeze and the Reality of Annual Surges
According to industry public data, cotton was quoted at 17,399.17 yuan per ton, raw silk at 435,600 yuan, cotton yarn 21S at 23,366.67 yuan, PTA at 7,147.50 yuan, polyester staple fiber at 8,596.75 yuan, spandex at 29,000 yuan, and nylon DTY at 18,020 yuan, all with a 0.00% daily change. Such an across-the-board daily freeze is uncommon in the textile market, typically indicating a temporary truce between buyers and sellers, or a sideways consolidation in exchange quotation mechanisms.
But zoom out to a full year, and the picture is entirely different. PTA surged 54.21% year-on-year, acrylonitrile 36.10%, nylon POY 38.88%, polyester FDY 35.80%, polyester POY 34.96%, polyester staple fiber 33.75%, polyester DTY 31.46%, and nylon DTY 29.83%. The synthetic fiber chain recorded year-on-year gains of over 30% almost across the board, while natural fibers were far more moderate: cotton rose 15.18%, cotton yarn 21S 5.89%, cotton yarn 32S 5.31%, and rayon yarn 6.97%. Raw silk fell 6.17%, the only negative performer on the list.
Why do a daily freeze and annual surges coexist? The core lies in the time lag of cost pass-through. Synthetic raw materials are linked to upstream energy and chemical products such as crude oil and propylene. Between 2025 and 2026, international energy prices moved upward, but downstream textile demand recovered slowly, forcing mills to hold daily quotations steady and absorb cost increases by compressing processing margins. This pattern of "upstream rises, midstream stabilizes, downstream endures" means cash flow pressure at synthetic fiber plants is accumulating.
The Logic Behind Synthetic Fiber Strength and the Raw Silk Anomaly
The collective strength of synthetic fibers is no accident. PTA, as the bellwether of the polyester chain, rose over 50% year-on-year, directly pushing up the cost floor for polyester filament and staple fiber. The nylon chain followed suit, with POY, FDY, and DTY all gaining over 26%, reflecting tight nylon chip supply and resilient demand for downstream sportswear fabrics. Acrylonitrile rose 36.10%, linked to cross-sector demand from carbon fiber and ABS resin, with textile acrylic fiber being just one of many downstream applications. This further complicates bargaining for textile mills in raw material procurement.
Spandex rose 19.59% and viscose staple fiber 11.13%, placing them between synthetics and natural fibers. Spandex gains are tied to sustained expansion in high-elasticity demand for sportswear and casual fabrics, while viscose staple fiber is supported by rising dissolving pulp costs and environmental production curbs. For buyers, this means quotations for elastic fabrics and regenerated cellulose fibers are unlikely to return to 2024 levels in the short term.
Raw silk is the sole decliner, down 6.17% year-on-year. This is partly due to recovering cocoon output easing supply-side pressure, and partly reflects weak export demand for high-end silk fabrics, especially slower purchasing of luxury silk products in European and Japanese markets. Weaker raw silk prices squeeze profits for reeling and weaving mills in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang silk belt, but offer a window for downstream apparel brands to lock in raw silk costs.
Transmission Through the Supply Chain and Expectations
From the perspective of industrial belts, traders in synthetic fabric hubs such as Keqiao and Shengze are generally taking a wait-and-see approach. A daily quotation freeze means the market lacks clear direction, and traders are reluctant to build large inventories, preferring to execute previous orders and shorten restocking cycles. This low-inventory operating mode, once upstream raw materials suddenly adjust prices, can easily trigger short-term restocking and amplify price volatility.
For downstream garment factories, synthetic raw material prices have risen sharply year-on-year while finished apparel prices struggle to keep pace, continuously squeezing profit margins. Some factories may shift blending formulas, substituting cotton or viscose for part of polyester and nylon to balance costs. However, substitution space is limited by fabric performance and order specifications, with actual adjustments remaining modest.
Exporters face a more complex situation. Fluctuating RMB exchange rates, elevated ocean freight, and rising raw material costs year-on-year are stacking up, forcing export quotation validity periods to shorten. The traditional practice of quarterly quotations is being replaced by monthly or even weekly quotes, making price adjustment clauses in contracts more critical.