On September 25, 2026, textile commodity prices showed zero month-on-month change across the board, with the daily fluctuation rate locked at 0%. This is not market hibernation but a temporary equilibrium between bulls and bears ahead of the National Day holiday. The real story lies in year-on-year figures: PTA leads with a 54.21% gain, while nylon POY, acrylonitrile, and polyester FDY recorded year-on-year increases of 38.88%, 36.10%, and 35.80% respectively. Raw silk stands as the sole decliner, down 6.17% year-on-year.
Cost Logic Behind the Divergence
On the surface, flat month-on-month prices mean factories face no change in daily raw material costs. But the year-on-year data tells a different story: upstream pricing pressure in the chemical fiber chain has been transmitting for at least a year. PTA, as the bellwether of the polyester chain, has seen its 54.21% year-on-year rise translate into cost increases of 33.75%, 13.29%, and 34.96% for polyester staple fiber, polyester yarn, and polyester POY respectively.
Why are downstream yarn gains far smaller than raw material gains? This indicates severe compression of processing margins in the midstream. Polyester yarn rose only 13.29% year-on-year while PTA surged 54.21%—the gap absorbed by polyester plants and spinning mills. For procurement teams, this means current yarn prices already embed razor-thin processing margins, leaving limited room for further price cuts.
The nylon chain shows a similar but more noteworthy pattern. Nylon POY rose 38.88% year-on-year, with nylon DTY and FDY up 29.83% and 26.55%. The narrow spread suggests relatively smooth cost pass-through and more balanced profit distribution. This contrasts sharply with the polyester chain's squeeze, implying nylon producers may hold firmer on pricing.
Raw Silk's Lone Decline and Cotton Chain Stability
Raw silk fell 6.17% year-on-year, the only negative performer on the list. Weak raw silk prices typically reflect soft silk export demand or ample cocoon supply. Given the absolute price of 435,600 yuan per ton remains at a historical mid-to-high level, the 6.17% decline looks more like a correction of prior over-enthusiasm than a trend reversal. Silk exporters may watch this window but should not bet on sustained declines.
The cotton chain signals stability. Cotton lint rose 15.18% year-on-year, while cotton yarn 21S and 32S gained 5.89% and 5.31%. The much smaller yarn gains indicate cotton spinners' processing margins are also compressed. For downstream garment factories, cotton yarn prices are relatively stable with no near-term volatility risk, but spinners have little room to concede further.
Viscose staple fiber rose 11.13% year-on-year, rayon yarn 6.97%, and spandex 19.59%. Viscose's moderate rise suggests resilient demand for regenerated cellulose fibers, while spandex's nearly 20% gain reflects sustained demand for sportswear and casual fabrics.
Practical Implications for the Supply Chain
Flat month-on-month prices are a short-term signal, typically appearing before holidays or major policy announcements. But year-on-year data determines annual profitability. The current textile raw material market shows a pattern of "strong chemical fibers, weak raw silk, stable cotton chain," requiring differentiated procurement strategies.
For chemical fiber buyers, high year-on-year gains in PTA and nylon raw materials mean locking in prices is already expensive. However, given compressed processing margins, yarn and fabric price upside is limited—patience may be warranted. For cotton buyers, stable yarn prices amid thin spinning margins suggest分批锁价 (batch-based price locking) rather than chasing highs. For exporters, raw silk's decline may offer pricing advantages for silk products, but end-demand confirmation is essential.