Textile commodities delivered a sharply divergent performance in week 38 of 2026. The sector's average weekly change was just -0.11%, yet PTA surged 1.39% to top the gainers while cotton yarn 21S and 32S both fell over 1.2%. This "upstream firm, downstream soft" pattern is a critical window into fourth-quarter supply chain dynamics.
Price Structure: Who Is Pushing Up, Who Is Dragging Down
According to industry public data, only five commodities rose this week, five declined, and seven remained flat. The top three gainers were PTA (+1.39%), viscose staple fiber (+0.41%), and polyester POY (+0.40%). The top three decliners were polyester FDY (-1.57%), cotton yarn 21S (-1.27%), and cotton yarn 32S (-1.20%).
The year-on-year dimension deserves attention: PTA is up 54.21%, polyester POY up 34.96%, and polyester FDY up 35.80%, while cotton yarn 21S and 32S have risen only 5.89% and 5.31%. This means cost escalation in the polyester chain far exceeds price recovery in cotton yarn, and profit distribution across the chain is severely imbalanced.
PTA's strength is no isolated event. As the source material for the polyester chain, its price increase cascades through filament yarn, staple fiber, and ultimately fabric and apparel costs. But polyester FDY fell this week rather than rising, suggesting midstream capacity to absorb raw material price hikes has peaked.
Industry Impact: What Cotton Yarn's Decline Signals
Cotton yarn 21S and 32S are base materials for knit and woven fabrics. Their synchronized weakness typically corresponds to contracting end-user orders. In regional industrial belts such as Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu, if spinning mills continue facing downward price pressure, operating rates and raw material procurement will turn conservative.
Cotton yarn's decline contrasts with virtually flat cotton lint prices (-0.02%). Cotton costs have not loosened, yet yarn prices are falling, indicating mills are actively sacrificing margin to secure orders. This "rigid cost, elastic selling price" combination is particularly unfavorable for small and medium mills, with cash flow pressure likely to surface in coming weeks.
Another warning signal is polyester staple fiber's 0.56% decline. Staple fiber substitutes for cotton yarn, and their simultaneous weakness further confirms weak end demand rather than an isolated move in a single commodity.
Raw silk, spandex, and the full nylon series were flat this week, yet their year-on-year changes range from -6.17% to +38.88%. Nylon's year-on-year gains generally exceed 26%, indicating the nylon chain remains more robust than cotton spinning and viscose. For buyers, this means bargaining room is diverging across fiber categories.