When daily price changes for all textile raw materials simultaneously drop to zero, the signal is not calm—it is a standoff. On September 25, 2026, China's commodity market textile sector recorded a rare across-the-board flatline: cotton, raw silk, acrylonitrile, PTA, polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, spandex, nylon, and various yarns all held exactly at the previous session's levels. Yet year-on-year data tells a different story: PTA surged 54.21%, acrylonitrile rose 36.10%, polyester POY, FDY, and DTY all gained over 30%, and nylon POY climbed 38.88%. The coexistence of flat daily movement and massive annual gains indicates the textile supply chain is at a critical juncture where price transmission is blocked and profits are being redistributed.
Structural Divergence in Year-on-Year Gains
Industry data shows petrochemical-derived raw materials posted the most dramatic annual increases. PTA led the textile sector with a 54.21% year-on-year rise, followed by acrylonitrile at 36.10%. Within the polyester chain, staple fiber gained 33.75%, while POY, FDY, and DTY rose 34.96%, 35.80%, and 31.46% respectively. Nylon series also performed strongly, with POY, DTY, and FDY up 38.88%, 29.83%, and 26.55%. Spandex was not far behind, rising 19.59%. These figures point to one fact: over the past year, the cost center for chemical fibers has shifted substantially upward.
In stark contrast, natural fibers painted a different picture. Cotton rose 15.18% year-on-year, cotton yarn 21S and 32S gained 5.89% and 5.31%, rayon yarn rose 6.97%, and viscose staple fiber increased 11.13%. Raw silk was the sole decliner, falling 6.17%. This means that although cotton prices have lifted, the yarn segment's gains significantly lag raw material costs, continuously squeezing spinning mills' processing margins. Raw silk's counter-trend decline reflects either weak end-user demand for silk or export order contraction transmitting upstream.
The Supply Chain Standoff Behind the Flatline
A simultaneous zero daily change across all textile commodities is unusual. Typically, PTA and polyester filament fluctuate with crude oil prices, polyester operating rates, and downstream restocking rhythms. A complete flatline may indicate a lack of clear directional drivers, with both buyers and sellers in a wait-and-see mode. For upstream petrochemical enterprises, current price levels have fully absorbed previous cost increases; further hikes require downstream acceptance. For downstream weaving and garment firms, high raw material costs combined with difficulty raising finished goods prices have dampened purchasing willingness.
From an industrial belt perspective, polyester filament plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang face a dilemma between inventory and profit. With polyester POY up nearly 35% year-on-year, whether downstream texturing and weaving can pass through costs depends on the recovery strength of end-user apparel consumption. Order conditions in fabric hubs like Keqiao and Shengze will directly influence future chemical fiber procurement rhythms. If end demand fails to follow, high upstream prices will be unsustainable, and a pullback may follow the flatline.
The cotton spinning chain is equally delicate. Cotton rose 15.18% year-on-year, but cotton yarn 21S and 32S gained only 5-6%, narrowing the spread and directly squeezing spinning mill profits. Some small and medium-sized mills may be forced to reduce operating rates or pivot to differentiated products to maintain profitability. For knitting and home textile enterprises using cotton yarn as a primary input, current raw material costs are relatively stable, but they must watch for price volatility transmission after new cotton arrives on the market.
Practical Implications for Procurement and Export
The current flatline offers procurement teams a brief observation window. Chemical fiber raw materials with high year-on-year gains lack momentum for further sharp increases in the short term, but deep corrections are also unlikely given upstream cost support. On procurement strategy,分批 building positions according to actual production plans is advisable, avoiding locking in high-priced inventory all at once. For export-oriented firms, with raw material costs rising substantially year-on-year and limited RMB exchange rate fluctuation, quotations must fully cover cost increases, or profits will be eroded.
The year-on-year decline in raw silk deserves attention from silk exporters. If end demand remains sluggish, raw silk prices may weaken further, but this also provides cost space for developing differentiated silk products. Viscose staple fiber rose 11.13% year-on-year, and rayon yarn gained 6.97%; the spread between them similarly reflects destocking pressure. Home textile and garment firms can watch for substitution opportunities in viscose-based materials, adjusting formulations moderately when cotton prices are high.
Overall, the textile raw material market is in a high-level stalemate. Year-on-year data warns that cost pressures are far from dissipating, while the daily flatline indicates the market is awaiting confirmation signals from end demand. Profit distribution across the supply chain will continue to be contested, and enterprises with cost pass-through capabilities and product differentiation will take the initiative in this cycle.