It is extremely rare for all textile raw material prices to remain completely unchanged within a single day. On September 25, 2026, a daily price monitoring covering 17 key categories—including cotton, raw silk, PTA, polyester, nylon, viscose, and spandex—showed zero gainers and zero losers, with the average daily change frozen at 0%. On the surface, the market appears calm. But the year-on-year dimension tells a very different story: PTA is up 54.21%, acrylonitrile up 36.10%, polyester POY, FDY, and DTY up 34.96%, 35.80%, and 31.46% respectively, and nylon POY up 38.88%. This combination of daily flatlining and annual surges means the cost center of the textile supply chain has shifted systematically upward, and the current price stalemate is better described as a fragile equilibrium in upstream-downstream bargaining.
The Cost Transmission Logic Behind the Flatline
Zero daily change typically emerges when the market lacks clear direction and neither buyers nor sellers are willing to move first. On the upstream side, the annual increases in crude oil and aromatic chains have not been fully digested. The high year-on-year levels of PTA and acrylonitrile indicate that cost pressures from chemical fiber raw materials remain intact. On the downstream side, cotton yarn 21S and 32S are up only 5.89% and 5.31% year-on-year, while rayon yarn is up 6.97%. The price transmission at the yarn stage clearly lags behind chemical fiber raw materials. This scissors gap means intermediate processors are seeing their margins continuously squeezed, and some spinning mills may already be operating near the break-even line.
Raw silk is the only category posting a year-on-year decline, down 6.17% at 435,600 yuan per ton. This anomalous trend stands in sharp contrast to the broad gains in chemical fibers, suggesting that the silk category may face an independent supply-demand dynamic—either shrinking export orders or a shift in domestic consumer preferences. For factories specializing in silk products, lower raw material costs are a positive, but if end-user demand weakens simultaneously, the price dividend may not translate into profit.
Cotton is quoted at 17,399.17 yuan per ton, up 15.18% year-on-year, a gain that sits between chemical fibers and yarns. As a representative of natural fibers, cotton price movements often directly influence blended product formulations. When cotton prices rise faster than cotton yarn, spinning mills cannot fully pass on raw material cost pressures downstream. Some orders may shift toward polyester-cotton blends or pure chemical fiber solutions, which in turn supports demand for polyester staple fiber. Polyester staple fiber is up 33.75% year-on-year at 8,596.75 yuan per ton, precisely reflecting this substitution effect.
Chain Reactions Across Industrial Clusters
Enterprises in chemical fiber fabric clusters such as Keqiao and Shengze are particularly sensitive to polyester filament prices. With polyester POY, FDY, and DTY all up over 30% year-on-year, weaving mills face significantly higher raw material procurement costs compared to last year. If fabric export quotes cannot be raised in tandem, processing margins in the weaving segment will be severely compressed. Shengze, dominated by polyester filament weaving, may see local enterprises adjusting product structures and increasing differentiated fiber usage to hedge cost pressures.
Home textile and apparel clusters in Nantong and Shaoxing are more affected by cotton yarn and blended raw materials. Cotton yarn is up only around 5% year-on-year, relatively moderate, but cotton is up 15.18%. The gap between the two suggests spinning mills have adopted restrained pricing strategies while absorbing raw material increases. Whether this restraint can continue depends on the fullness of end-user orders. If autumn-winter orders fall short of expectations, spinning mills may be forced to concede further, and cotton yarn prices could face catch-down risks.
The year-on-year gains in nylon also deserve attention. Nylon POY, FDY, and DTY are up 38.88%, 26.55%, and 29.83% respectively, quoted at 16,075, 18,350, and 18,020 yuan per ton. Nylon is primarily used in sportswear, outdoor products, and functional fabrics. Its sustained high prices may prompt brands to adjust procurement rhythms or shift toward polyester alternatives. For enterprises producing nylon fabrics, cost pass-through capability will determine profitability in the second half.
Spandex is quoted at 29,000 yuan per ton, up 19.59% year-on-year, while viscose staple fiber is at 14,580 yuan per ton, up 11.13%. These two categories show relatively moderate gains, but spandex, as an elastic fiber, directly affects the cost structure of sportswear and underwear. Viscose staple fiber has a substitution relationship with cotton yarn, and its moderate increase helps stabilize raw material cost expectations for blended products.
Practical Implications for Procurement and Export
The current daily flatline will not persist indefinitely. Categories with large year-on-year gains have accumulated strong correction or catch-up momentum, while weaker categories may face catch-down pressure. Procurement teams need to differentiate: for chemical fiber raw materials at year-on-year highs, price-locking windows should be seized decisively once they appear. For categories like cotton yarn where transmission lags, a wait-and-see approach is reasonable until clearer order signals emerge.
Exporters must pay particular attention to the dual volatility of exchange rates and raw material prices. If the RMB exchange rate remains stable while raw material costs surge year-on-year, the room for adjusting export quotes will be squeezed. Some export orders may be delayed due to stalled price negotiations, which in turn affects factory production scheduling. Exporters are advised to include explicit raw material price adjustment clauses in contracts or adopt short-cycle, quick-response models to reduce raw material exposure.