When the market focuses on daily price movements, year-on-year data often gets overlooked. On October 1, 2026, textile commodity prices were flat across the board, with a daily change of 0%. But on an annual basis, PTA recorded a 59.46% gain, nylon POY rose 38.88%, polyester FDY climbed 37.36%, and polyester staple fiber increased 35.44%. These figures reveal a fact masked by short-term calm: over the past year, the cost baseline for chemical fibers has shifted significantly higher.
The Cost Reality Behind Annual Data
According to industry public data, cotton (lint) was priced at 17,408.33 yuan/ton, up 16.92% year-on-year; cotton yarn 21S and 32S stood at 23,400 yuan/ton and 24,850 yuan/ton, with annual gains of 6.04% and 5.52% respectively. The cotton spinning chain shows relatively moderate increases, but the annual rise in chemical fiber raw materials far exceeds that of downstream yarns, meaning midstream manufacturers' profit margins are being continuously squeezed.
Raw silk was the only decliner, priced at 445,500 yuan/ton, down 4.65% year-on-year. This divergence deserves attention: while chemical fiber raw materials collectively rose, raw silk weakened alone. This may reflect structural adjustments in high-end natural fiber demand or changes in silkworm cocoon supply cycles. For buyers, this means the bargaining logic across different fiber categories is diverging.
Acrylonitrile rose 35.07% year-on-year, spandex gained 19.59%, and viscose staple fiber increased 11.13%. Together, these figures point to one conclusion: the annual cost baseline for textile raw materials has been systematically raised. Daily flatness is merely a short-term equilibrium, not a sign that pressure has lifted.
Time Lags and Asymmetry in Supply Chain Transmission
The year-on-year gains for polyester POY, DTY, and FDY were 36.19%, 31.11%, and 37.36% respectively. The similar magnitudes suggest relatively smooth transmission within the polyester chain. However, nylon DTY and FDY rose 29.83% and 26.55% annually, lower than nylon POY's 38.88%, implying that downstream texturing and weaving segments have not fully passed on raw material increases.
Cotton yarn's annual gain of only 5%-6% is far below cotton lint's 16.92%. This asymmetry means cotton spinning mills' processing margins are compressed. If terminal apparel demand cannot support simultaneous price hikes, some small and medium-sized yarn mills may face pressure to cut production. For downstream fabric and garment enterprises, short-term yarn price stability offers a procurement window, but medium-term cost upside risks remain.
Rayon yarn rose 6.97% year-on-year, contrasting with viscose staple fiber's 11.13% gain, again showing midstream absorption of some costs. This pattern of "raw materials rising, yarns lagging" typically manifests in textile industrial belts as cautious order-taking and extended payment terms.
Practical Implications for Procurement and Export
Flat daily prices can easily create an illusion of market stability. But annual data shows current price levels are already in the upper range of the past year. For traders and factories needing to lock in forward costs, now is not a time for wait-and-see, but a node to reassess quotation validity periods.
Exporters need particular attention: annual gains for chemical fiber raw materials generally exceed 30%, while many export order quotation cycles still follow quarterly or semi-annual adjustment mechanisms. Executing new orders at old prices could significantly erode profits. It is advisable to include raw material price linkage clauses in contracts or shorten quotation validity to within 30 days.
For Buyers - For chemical fiber raw materials, prioritize locking in usage within 3 months, avoiding long-term orders at annual highs - For weakening varieties like raw silk, moderately delay procurement and observe whether demand further weakens - Recalculate the spread between cotton yarn and cotton lint; if processing margins remain thin, prepare alternative supply sources
For Exporters - Shorten export quotation validity periods and incorporate annual raw material gains into cost models - For chemical fiber orders, consider negotiating price adjustment mechanisms or batch deliveries with customers - Monitor lagging nylon downstream varieties, as catch-up gains may bring a new round of cost shocks
Overall, the textile raw material market is in a delicate phase of "stable daily, rising annually." Short-term flatness provides breathing room for procurement, but annual data reminds all participants: the cost transmission chain is still running, just at an uneven pace. Those who identify this asymmetry earlier will gain the upper hand in the next round of price volatility.