Import growth running at five times the pace of exports tells the real story of China's wool textile trade this year: the pressure is on the cost side, not the demand side. China customs data show that in the first eight months of 2026, total trade in wool textile raw materials and products reached USD 11.7 billion (about RMB 80.5 billion), up 12.9% year-on-year. But split the two directions and the picture diverges sharply: exports came in at USD 8.56 billion, up 6.82%, while imports hit USD 3.14 billion, up 33.67%. The import surge is not driven by a parallel expansion in domestic processing demand. Price is doing the heavy lifting.
Imports: Growth Driven by Price, Not Volume
The wool and semi-processed wool figures make this clearest. Import value reached USD 1.87 billion in the January-August period, surging 48.19% year-on-year, yet import volume was only 213,000 tonnes, up just 4.56%. The gap between value and volume growth points to a single conclusion: the inflation in import value comes almost entirely from unit prices. The average import price stood at USD 8.77 per kilogram, up 41.73% year-on-year, meaning domestic wool textile mills are paying over 40% more for raw material than a year ago.
For downstream factories, this cost shock is rigid. Wool typically accounts for more than 50% of the cost structure in wool textile products. A 40% rise in average prices means total finished-product costs are pushed up by roughly 20% even if every other cost component stays flat. The problem is that price transmission on the export side is far from symmetrical. Export prices for most wool textile products fluctuated within a range of -5% to 6% year-on-year, nowhere near enough to cover the raw material surge.
One development worth watching: in August alone, the average wool import price was USD 8.96 per kilogram, down 7.5% month-on-month, with other animal fibre import prices recording the same 7.5% monthly decline. This suggests the rapid upward pressure on raw material prices is easing. But a single month's sequential decline is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. The Australian wool auction market in the coming weeks will be the key indicator.
Exports: Volume-Price Divergence, Garment Unit Values Stand Out
The structural divergence on the export side deserves more attention than the headline numbers. Apart from wool woven garments, whose export volume fell 9.49% year-on-year to 11.06 million pieces, all other major wool textile product categories recorded volume growth. This means the export base is not contracting. Order volumes remain supported across most categories.
Wool woven garments were the only category to see volume decline, yet their unit price performance was the most striking of all. The average export price reached USD 48.65 per piece, up 18.23% year-on-year. The unit price increase partially offset the revenue pressure from lower shipment volumes. This kind of volume-price divergence typically points to two possibilities: either the export mix is shifting toward higher-value styles as low-end orders migrate to Southeast Asia, or raw material cost inflation is forcing companies to raise prices, and overseas buyers lack alternative suppliers in specific categories and have to accept the increases.
From a industrial cluster perspective, export-oriented enterprises in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, particularly those focused on worsted fabrics and wool woven garments, are facing a triple squeeze this year: expensive raw materials, difficult price negotiations, and fragmented orders. By contrast, companies focused on wool tops and wool yarns, while also bearing raw material cost increases, have maintained export volume growth thanks to shorter processing chains and faster inventory turnover.
Outlook: Cost Absorption Capacity Determines Who Stays in the Game
The core issue for the wool textile industry is not whether orders exist, but whether order profits can cover rising raw material costs. Import prices are up over 40% year-on-year, while the highest export price gain in any category is around 18%. The gap must be filled through efficiency gains, product upgrades, or currency effects.
From a procurement strategy standpoint, the month-on-month decline in August import prices is a signal worth monitoring. If the trend continues, raw material cost pressure may ease marginally in the fourth quarter, though digesting previously purchased high-priced inventory will take time. For export-oriented wool textile companies, the priority now is not chasing shipment volume growth but defending unit prices and profit margins.
Another variable that cannot be ignored is the supply side of international wool. Australian wool production, auction clearance rates, and exchange rate movements all directly affect domestic procurement costs. With import prices already at elevated levels, any supply-side disruption could be amplified.