On October 2, 2026, China's textile commodity market flashed a warning signal: daily price changes across the entire sector dropped to zero. Cotton stood at 17,408.33 yuan per ton, cotton yarn 21S at 23,400 yuan, PTA at 7,327.25 yuan, polyester staple fiber at 8,690.58 yuan, and spandex at 29,000 yuan — all identical to the previous day. But zoom out to year-on-year terms and the picture inverts: PTA has surged 59.46%, nylon POY is up 38.88%, polyester FDY has gained 37.36%, and polyester staple fiber has risen 35.44%. This combination of frozen daily prices and soaring annual gains points to a reality many overlook: cost pressures have not disappeared — they are simply waiting for a transmission window.
Divergence Beneath the Surface
According to China Customs and industry public data, the year-on-year gains in the chemical fiber segment show clear tiers. PTA leads with a 59.46% increase, directly pushing up the cost center for downstream polyester products. Polyester staple fiber, POY, DTY, and FDY cluster in the 31% to 37% range, while nylon series products record 26% to 39% year-on-year growth. This means the raw material cost base for the chemical fiber chain has been systematically elevated over the past year, and the current zero daily fluctuation looks more like a high-level plateau than a release of pressure.
In contrast, natural fibers tell a different story. Cotton is up 16.92% year-on-year, cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose 6.04% and 5.52% respectively, rayon yarn gained 6.97%, and viscose staple fiber climbed 11.13%. The cotton chain's annual gains are notably lower than the chemical fiber chain, suggesting relatively ample cotton supply, while chemical fiber raw materials are more directly pulled by energy and upstream chemical prices. Raw silk is the sole decliner, down 4.65%, reflecting weak demand and inventory digestion pressure in the silk consumer segment.
This divergence directly affects procurement strategies. Take polyester staple fiber: a 35.44% year-on-year increase means factories that locked in raw materials at lower costs last year now face significantly higher input costs. Cotton yarn, up only 5% to 6%, keeps raw material pressure relatively manageable for cotton mills, but finished product prices are equally difficult to raise, leaving margins constrained.
The Transmission Lag Behind Frozen Prices
Zero daily price movement across the board is unusual in textile commodities. Even on normal trading days, it is rare for all varieties to remain completely flat. This phenomenon may stem from holiday-related quote suspensions or reflect a wait-and-see attitude among market participants at current price levels. Regardless of the cause, frozen prices do not equal resolved risk.
From a transmission perspective, the high year-on-year gains in PTA and polyester staple fiber have not fully passed through to downstream fabrics and apparel. Polyester yarn is up 13.29% year-on-year, far below the 35.44% gain in polyester staple fiber, indicating that the yarn segment's pricing power is constrained by end demand. Spandex is up 19.59%, but competition in downstream stretch fabrics is intense, making cost pass-through difficult. This pattern — upstream rises, midstream absorbs, downstream struggles — is compressing processing margins in weaving and dyeing.
For chemical fiber fabric clusters in Keqiao and Shengze, this means quoting orders requires greater caution. Locking in forward orders at current raw material prices risks losses if upstream costs continue to rise; but quoting too high may sacrifice order competitiveness. This dilemma is most acute in varieties with the largest year-on-year gains.
Differentiated Responses Across Industrial Clusters
The impact is uneven across regions. Chemical fiber weaving bases in Keqiao, Shengze, and Changle, which rely primarily on polyester and nylon, face the greatest raw material cost pressure. Nylon POY's 38.88% year-on-year gain directly raises the production cost of nylon fabrics, which are widely used in outdoor and sportswear, where end brands are highly price-sensitive.
The Nantong home textile cluster, dominated by cotton and blended fibers, faces a combined effect from cotton's 16.92% gain and polyester staple fiber's 35.44% rise, placing raw material cost increases somewhere between pure cotton and pure chemical fiber. However, home textile products have longer replacement cycles, and consumers are relatively more accepting of price adjustments, giving cost pass-through slightly more room than fast fashion.
Raw silk's 4.65% year-on-year decline benefits silk clusters in Hangzhou and Huzhou. Lower raw material costs provide some margin recovery for silk fabric and garment enterprises, but also reflect weak end consumption. If demand does not recover in tandem, falling raw material prices could further suppress pricing power for silk products.