Import growth outpacing export growth by a factor of five is a more alarming signal than the headline trade figure. In the first eight months of 2026, China's wool textile raw materials and products trade totaled USD 11.7 billion (approximately RMB 80.5 billion), up 12.9% year-on-year. However, breaking it down, exports rose only 6.82% to USD 8.56 billion, while imports surged 33.67% to USD 3.14 billion. The explosive import growth was not driven by demand expansion but by price inflation—wool and early-processed wool imports reached USD 1.87 billion, up 48.19% year-on-year, while import volume was only 213,000 tons, up a mere 4.56%. The average price stood at USD 8.77/kg, up 41.73% year-on-year. This means domestic wool textile enterprises are paying significantly more for the same raw materials.
Import Side: Price, Not Demand, Is the Driver
Average wool import prices have risen rapidly since the start of the year, reaching USD 8.96/kg in August, though this was down 7.5% month-on-month. Other animal fiber import prices also fell 7.5% month-on-month. This sequential decline suggests that the pressure from earlier rapid price increases is easing at the margin, but the year-on-year increase remains striking. For downstream factories, elevated raw material costs directly squeeze profit margins, especially for early-processing and mid-stream enterprises with limited bargaining power and the greatest difficulty passing on costs.
In terms of import structure, wool and early-processed wool account for nearly 60% of total import value, indicating that domestic reliance on upstream raw materials remains high. This dependence means any fluctuation in the international wool market is quickly transmitted to domestic enterprises. Australian wool auction prices, exchange rate movements, and shipping costs all feed into procurement costs within weeks.
Export Side: Volume-Price Divergence, Unit Prices Holding Up
On the export side, there is a clear volume-price divergence. Except for woven wool garments, which saw export volume of 11.06 million pieces, down 9.49% year-on-year, other major wool textile categories all recorded volume growth. On the price front, export prices for early-processed and mid-to-downstream wool products fluctuated between -5% and 6% year-on-year, while the average export price of woven wool garments reached USD 48.65 per piece, up 18.23% year-on-year. The unit price increase offset some of the pressure from declining shipment volumes, but not all categories can achieve such price gains.
The sharp rise in woven wool garment unit prices may reflect a shift toward higher-end export products, or it may simply be passive price increases driven by costs. If the latter, buyers will eventually seek alternative suppliers, and the risk of order loss cannot be ignored. In contrast, the narrow price fluctuation range for early-processed products indicates intense competition and very limited room for price increases.
Industry Impact: Profit Redistribution and Order Shifts
The combination of rising import raw material prices and difficulty in raising export finished product prices results in profit redistribution along the supply chain. Upstream raw material suppliers and apparel companies with brand premium capabilities are relatively better off, while spinning, weaving, and dyeing enterprises in the middle of the chain bear the greatest pressure. Some small and medium-sized factories may be forced to cut production or switch to other fiber categories.
For buyers, the price outlook for wool textile products is changing. If wool prices remain high, retail prices for wool garments will face upward pressure, potentially dampening end-user demand. For foreign trade enterprises, the dual uncertainty of exchange rate fluctuations and raw material costs is shortening quotation cycles and making contract terms more cautious.