At 75.00 cents per pound, the seven-market average spot cotton price for the week ending October 1, 2026, fell 255 points week-on-week — yet still sits more than 13 cents above the 61.87 cents recorded a year earlier. Prices are softening, but the absolute level remains elevated. Regional forward bookings are accelerating, yet mills remain cautious. That contrast is the real story in the US cotton market right now.
Price Signals: Futures and Spot Weaken Together, but Year-on-Year Stays High
On the futures side, ICE's most-active December cotton contract settled at 77.76 cents/lb on October 1, down 0.76 cents or 0.97% on the day, after touching its lowest intraday level since July 17. The week's spot quotes ranged from 72.65 to 77.68 cents/lb — a spread of more than 5 cents — indicating that the market is far from unified on short-term direction.
For buyers, a 255-point weekly drop can easily be read as a turning point. But the fact that prices remain 13.13 cents above year-ago levels means the current range is still in the upper band of the past two years. This "weak week-on-week, strong year-on-year" combination tends to lengthen downstream decision cycles — buyers fear chasing highs but also fear missing out, which ultimately shows up as plenty of inquiries and few actual deals.
Regional Bookings: Southwest Leads, Pace Diverges Sharply
By the end of September, US upland cotton growers had booked 25% of expected planted area, up from 17% a year earlier. By region, the Southwest was most active with 33% booked, versus 27% last year. The Mid-South jumped from 7% to 18%. The Southeast rose from 5% to 15%. The West booked only 2%, flat year-on-year.
Two takeaways emerge. First, Southwest growers are showing greater willingness to lock in forward sales at current prices, which typically signals they do not expect a significant further rally. Second, the stalled West bookings suggest growers there are still waiting for clearer quality and yield signals. For downstream spinners, regions with faster booking progress will see available spot supply tighten later in the season, meaning procurement windows need to be planned earlier.
Demand Side: Inquiries Exist, Deals Do Not
Mill demand remains broadly thin. The Southeast market reported no domestic sales or domestic inquiries, with yarn demand weak-to-moderate and a cautious overall tone. Export channels were similar — agents for Vietnamese mills inquired about medium volumes of Grade 31, 3-leaf, 36 and 37 length cotton for near-term shipment. Mexican mill representatives also inquired about medium volumes, also for near-term shipment. But no actual deals were reported.
The Southwest told a similar story: East Texas-South Texas saw active spot trading with moderate supply and offerings, but demand was thin, and overseas inquiries were most active from Pakistan, Taiwan and Vietnam. The West Texas-Kansas-Oklahoma market saw inactive spot trading, very weak demand and low producer interest in forward contracting. The concentration of inquiries in South and Southeast Asia suggests mills there have restocking intent, but a gap remains between their price expectations and seller offers.
Weather Variables: Harvest Advances, Quality Concerns Loom
Alabama and Georgia in the Southeast were hit by September heatwaves, expanding drought conditions to severe and extreme levels. But dry weather actually accelerated defoliant application and harvest progress. As of September 28, boll opening rates in Georgia and Alabama reached 79% and 77% respectively, with harvest completion at 6% and 7%.
West Texas and eastern New Mexico received what was described as timely but awkwardly timed rainfall, with some areas seeing more than 165 mm, accompanied by gusty winds, hail and tornadoes. Muddy fields made damage assessment difficult. More critically, the severe weather triggered secondary growth in cotton plants, raising industry concerns about fiber quality. Ginning, originally expected to begin in early October, is now expected to slow. Rainfall in Kansas and Oklahoma benefited irrigated fields but delayed field operations by several days.
Rising quality uncertainty poses a direct challenge to spinning mills' cotton blending strategies. If subsequent classification data shows weaker fiber length, strength or uniformity, raw material costs for high-count yarn producers could be pushed higher.