Polyester staple fiber is up 35.44% year-on-year, PTA up 59.46%—yet raw silk remains down 4.65% over the same period. The weekly textile raw material price table for week 39 reveals a warning signal: the polyester chain, cotton chain and silk chain are decoupling at an accelerating pace, and cost-side pressure is not being transmitted evenly across categories.
The Divergence Behind the Data
Customs and industry data show five textile commodities rose week-on-week and two declined, with an average weekly change of just 0.07%. On the surface, the market looks calm. But the year-on-year dimension tells a different story: polyester staple fiber, PTA, polyester POY, polyester FDY and nylon POY posted year-on-year gains of 35.44%, 59.46%, 36.19%, 37.36% and 38.88% respectively. Both the polyester and nylon synthetic fiber chains are sitting at year-on-year highs above 30%.
What does this mean? Over the past year, upstream cost increases have not been fully absorbed downstream. Instead, they have settled into the supply chain in the form of flat weekly moves paired with elevated year-on-year levels. For buyers, the weekly price table is losing its reference value—the year-on-year spread is the real bargaining chip at the negotiating table.
In contrast, the natural fiber chain tells a different story. Cotton edged down 0.07% week-on-week but remains up 16.92% year-on-year. Raw silk rose 0.20% weekly yet is down 4.65% year-on-year. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S gained 0.14% and 0.20% weekly, with year-on-year gains of 5% to 6%—a mild follow-through. This suggests cotton and silk pricing is driven more by planting cycles and inventory than by crude oil costs.
Transmission Differences Across Industrial Belts
The strength of the polyester chain is squeezing chemical fiber fabric clusters such as Keqiao and Shengze. Polyester POY, FDY and DTY quotes were flat week-on-week, but year-on-year gains all exceed 30%, meaning local weaving mills face significantly higher raw material costs than a year ago while fabric price increases are constrained by downstream apparel order bargaining power.
Acrylonitrile fell 0.46% weekly but is up 35.07% year-on-year—a combination worth noting. As a key feedstock for acrylic fiber and ABS, its elevated year-on-year level indicates upstream petrochemical margin recovery is still underway, while the weekly decline suggests short-term demand is insufficient. For downstream factories, this may be a window for restocking rather than a signal of trend reversal.
Viscose staple fiber, spandex and rayon yarn were all flat weekly, with year-on-year gains of 11.13%, 19.59% and 6.97% respectively—the middle tier. Their sideways movement indicates relatively balanced supply and demand, but also means that if the polyester chain continues to rise, substitution effects could shift orders toward viscose and other alternative fibers.
Impact on Procurement and Export
From an upstream-downstream transmission perspective, PTA's nearly 60% year-on-year gain is the pricing anchor for the entire polyester chain. PTA strength directly raises the cost floor for polyester staple fiber and filament, affecting yarn, fabric and ultimately apparel pricing. Exporters still calculating margins based on last year's raw material costs risk systematically underestimating their expenses when taking orders.
Raw silk's year-on-year decline offers another perspective. As a high-value natural fiber, silk price weakness may reflect a temporary slowdown in high-end silk export demand or a recovery in cocoon supply. For traders focused on silk categories, the current period is a relatively favorable window to lock in raw material costs.
Overall assessment: the textile raw material market has shifted from broad gains and losses to cost-driven divergence. The polyester and nylon chains are dominated by crude oil and PTA, the cotton chain by planting and inventory, and the silk chain by high-end demand. Three parallel logic lines mean that single-category weekly moves are no longer sufficient to support procurement decisions—cross-category spread analysis and year-on-year comparisons are more reliable tools.