On October 2, textile raw material prices delivered an all-zero scorecard—every product flat day-on-day, with a uniform daily change of 0%. But the real story isn't the standstill; it's the three distinct price tiers that have already emerged on a year-on-year basis.
Three Tiers in Year-on-Year Data
The first tier covers polyester and nylon chains. PTA rose 59.46% year-on-year, nylon POY gained 38.88%, polyester FDY climbed 37.36%, polyester POY added 36.19%, acrylonitrile advanced 35.07%, and polyester staple fiber increased 35.44%. These figures cluster in the chemical fiber upstream, indicating that cost-side pressures from the past year have not been fully absorbed.
The second tier includes spandex, viscose staple fiber, polyester yarn, and cotton yarn. Spandex gained 19.59% year-on-year, viscose staple fiber rose 11.13%, polyester yarn added 13.29%, while cotton yarn 21S and 32S increased 6.04% and 5.52% respectively. This tier shows moderate gains but broad coverage, directly affecting weaving input costs.
The third tier is natural fibers. Cotton rose 16.92% year-on-year, which appears significant, but raw silk fell 4.65%, making it the only negative performer on the list. The spread between natural and chemical fibers is being repriced.
Market Logic Behind Frozen Prices
A single day of zero change typically occurs during holidays or market closures when quotes lack transaction support. Yet combined with year-on-year data, the textile raw material market sits at a delicate equilibrium: chemical fiber prices have been lifted by crude oil and upstream plant maintenance, while downstream weaving and apparel demand recovers slowly and struggles to accept further cost pass-through.
For buyers, this means the "wait for a price drop" strategy carries rising risk. With PTA and nylon series up nearly 40% year-on-year, even if short-term prices move sideways, future downside is limited. Companies still budgeting against last year's price anchors may find themselves reactive in the next restocking cycle.
For mills, product mix determines profit elasticity. Those using polyester or nylon filament as primary inputs face the greatest year-on-year cost pressure; those centered on cotton yarn or rayon yarn see relatively manageable increases. Raw silk's year-on-year decline offers short-term relief for silk weavers, though subsequent changes in cocoon supply warrant attention.
Transmission Differences Across Industrial Belts
Chemical fiber weaving clusters like Keqiao and Shengze are most sensitive to PTA and polyester filament prices. Local firms rely on polyester FDY, DTY, and POY as primary inputs, and year-on-year gains above 30% directly squeeze processing margins. Some SMEs may respond by lowering operating rates, potentially tightening grey fabric supply in the short term.
Home textile and apparel fabric bases in Nantong and Foshan are more affected by cotton yarn and viscose staple fiber prices. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose around 6% year-on-year, a digestible range, but combined with spandex's 19.59% gain, cost pressure on stretch fabrics cannot be ignored.
Exporters face another layer. RMB exchange rate fluctuations combined with year-on-year raw material increases erode the competitiveness of export quotes. For long orders denominated in USD, without raw material adjustment clauses in contracts, margins could be further compromised.