A 0.64% weekly gain in polyester staple fiber appears modest, but the 35.44% year-on-year increase is the signal factories should truly heed. Data for week 39 of 2026 (September 28 to October 2) reveals a structural fact masked by week-on-week figures: cost-side escalation was completed long ago, and current price movements are merely digesting earlier gains.
Divergence Logic Behind the Data
The textile sector posted five gainers and two decliners this week. Polyester staple fiber rose from 8,635.08 yuan/ton to 8,690.58 yuan/ton; PTA edged up from 7,293.50 to 7,327.25 yuan/ton; raw silk and cotton yarn 32S and 21S recorded gains of 0.20% and 0.14% respectively. Only acrylonitrile and lint cotton declined, by 0.46% and 0.07%.
Notably, polyester yarn, viscose staple fiber, spandex, rayon yarn, and polyester POY, DTY, FDY along with three nylon varieties remained completely flat. This broad sideways movement is not due to weak demand but reflects a temporary equilibrium between high upstream costs and downstream acceptance.
The year-on-year dimension tells a different story. PTA surged 59.46% YoY, polyester FDY rose 37.36%, nylon POY gained 38.88%, polyester POY increased 36.19%, acrylonitrile climbed 35.07%, and polyester staple fiber advanced 35.44%. Cost pressure across the chemical fiber chain has accumulated for over a year.
Industrial Belt Transmission and Procurement Strategy Shifts
For chemical fiber fabric clusters in Keqiao and Shengze, year-on-year gains exceeding 30% in polyester filament series mean the raw material cost baseline for weaving has been systematically elevated. Factories using weekly fluctuations as their sole procurement reference risk underestimating actual capital occupation pressure.
Divergence in the cotton spinning sector also merits attention. Cotton yarn 32S and 21S rose 5.52% and 6.04% YoY respectively, while lint cotton gained 16.92% YoY but dipped 0.07% week-on-week. Between high-level sideways movement in cotton prices and moderate yarn price increases, processing margins are clearly being compressed. Yarn mills in Nantong and Foshan need to recalculate the match between cotton blending costs and order quotations.
Raw silk prices remain negative YoY at -4.65%, appearing isolated amid broad raw material inflation. This means cost pressure on silk end-products is relatively manageable, but it also reflects weaker recovery in genuine silk demand compared to chemical fiber products.
Acrylonitrile, as a raw material for acrylic fiber, posted a 35.07% YoY gain but fell 0.46% week-on-week. This combination of high YoY and soft weekly performance suggests short-term procurement windows for acrylic yarn and wool-blend enterprises may be better than for polyester varieties.
Practical Implications for Buyers and Factories
The core contradiction in procurement decisions under current price structures is not how much prices rose this week, but whether existing quotation systems still have profit margins after the YoY baseline has shifted. With chemical fiber raw materials generally up over 30% YoY, any contract anchored to last year's prices needs re-examination.
For Buyers - For varieties with significant YoY gains like polyester staple fiber and PTA, prioritize quarterly price locking over monthly following to avoid accumulated weekly volatility risks - Watch the acrylonitrile weekly pullback window; acrylic raw materials can moderately increase short-term stockpiling ratios - Cotton yarn procurement should track lint cotton's 16.92% YoY gain simultaneously to avoid passive markups from lagging yarn price adjustments
For Factories - Weaving enterprises in Shengze and Keqiao should recalculate unit grey fabric costs after polyester FDY and POY rose over 36% YoY, and adjust quotation sheets promptly - Cotton spinning mills need to add cost-effective alternatives in blending plans to hedge against lint cotton's YoY increase - During the window where raw silk remains negative YoY, silk factories can moderately lock in raw materials, but must simultaneously assess end-order recovery pace
Overall, the core message from this week's textile raw material market is not the weekly fluctuation itself, but the persistence of cost transmission under high YoY baselines. For all links in the supply chain, the focus in coming weeks should shift from whether prices will fall to whether current prices can be absorbed by end markets.