On the second day of the National Day holiday, textile commodity prices delivered a flat report card. According to China Customs and publicly available industry data, on October 2, the textile sector saw zero commodities rise and zero fall month-on-month, with the daily change rate frozen at 0%. Behind this seemingly calm data, the year-on-year dimension reveals sharp structural divergence—PTA surged nearly 60% year-on-year, nylon and polyester filament series generally rose over 30%, while raw silk became the only declining variety. The price rift between the raw material end and the terminal end is becoming the most noteworthy variable in the textile supply chain for the fourth quarter.
Divergence in Year-on-Year Data
Let's look at the gainers first. PTA topped the list with a 59.46% year-on-year increase. Nylon POY, polyester FDY, polyester POY, acrylonitrile, and polyester staple fiber recorded year-on-year gains of 38.88%, 37.36%, 36.19%, 35.07%, and 35.44%, respectively. This means that over the past year, the raw material costs of the chemical fiber supply chain have experienced a substantial rise. For downstream weaving and dyeing enterprises, this is not a reassuring signal—raw material costs remain high, but terminal apparel consumption has not recovered in tandem, continuously squeezing profit margins.
Now for the divergence. Raw silk was the only variety to post a year-on-year decline, down 4.65%. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose 6.04% and 5.52% year-on-year, respectively, while rayon yarn rose 6.97% and viscose staple fiber rose 11.13%. The price performance of natural fibers and regenerated fibers is notably weaker than that of petroleum-based chemical fibers, reflecting divergence in demand across different raw material tracks.
Industrial Logic Behind the Flatline
A daily change rate of zero usually has two explanations: either holiday factors paused quote updates, or the market is in a wait-and-see period before choosing a direction. Given the National Day holiday timing, the former is the more reasonable explanation. However, it is worth noting that even on the last trading day before the holiday, the textile sector showed no clear upward or downward momentum.
From feedback in industrial belts, the operating rates in chemical fiber weaving clusters such as Keqiao and Shengze showed a slight decline by the end of the third quarter, with some factories focusing on digesting inventory and becoming more cautious about raw material procurement. The situation in the Nantong home textile cluster is similar, with terminal orders dominated by short and urgent orders and weak willingness for large-scale stockpiling. This pattern of "rising raw materials, hard-to-raise finished products" puts the greatest pressure on weaving and trading enterprises in the middle of the chain.
Spandex prices rose 19.59% year-on-year, and polyester DTY rose 31.11% year-on-year. These figures indicate that differentiated and functional fibers have relatively stronger pricing power. But whether the premium can be transmitted to the terminal depends on the acceptance of brands and retail ends. Currently, the room for terminal price increases appears limited.
Transmission Impact on Procurement and Foreign Trade
For buyers, the current flat pattern provides a brief observation window. Chemical fiber raw materials are at high year-on-year levels, but month-on-month they have stabilized, meaning the probability of further sharp increases in the short term is decreasing. If crude oil prices do not experience extreme fluctuations in the fourth quarter, chemical fiber raw material prices are likely to remain in high-level oscillation. At this point, locking in prices or building positions in batches is more rational than chasing the rally.
For foreign trade enterprises, two risk points need attention: first, the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on quotations; second, overseas customers' acceptance of price increases. PTA and polyester filament year-on-year gains exceed 30%, but competitors in Southeast Asia and South Asia face the same raw material price increases, so the cost advantage of Chinese suppliers has not been completely eroded. The key lies in delivery times and quality consistency, not pure price competition.
The year-on-year decline in raw silk offers another perspective. As a high-end natural fiber, weakening raw silk prices may reflect a slowdown in export demand for high-end silk products. Traders dealing in silk categories need to reassess consumer willingness in target markets to avoid being forced to cut prices under high inventory.