Polyester staple fiber is up 35.44% year-on-year, and PTA has surged 59.46%, yet their week-on-week gains are merely 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. This scissors gap reveals more about the textile raw material market than any single weekly price table. Cost-side support remains elevated, but downstream transmission momentum has clearly weakened.
Data Divergence: A Tug-of-War Between Cost Push and Soft Demand
According to industry public data for week 39 of 2026 (September 28 to October 2), the textile sector showed a pattern of "more gainers than losers, but limited magnitude." Five commodities rose week-on-week while only two declined, yet the average weekly change was just 0.07%. This indicates a near balance between bulls and bears, with no clear direction.
The gainers were concentrated in the upstream polyester chain. Polyester staple fiber rose from 8,635.08 yuan/ton to 8,690.58 yuan/ton, while PTA edged up from 7,293.50 yuan/ton to 7,327.25 yuan/ton. Raw silk, cotton yarn 32S, and cotton yarn 21S posted modest gains of 0.20%, 0.20%, and 0.14% respectively.
On the downside, acrylonitrile fell 0.46% to 10,783.33 yuan/ton, and cotton lint dipped 0.07% to 17,408.33 yuan/ton. Though small, these declines carry directional signals—acrylonitrile, a key raw material for acrylic fiber, weakening may indicate pressure on downstream acrylic yarn demand.
More noteworthy is the large group of flat commodities. Ten categories—including polyester yarn, viscose staple fiber, spandex, rayon yarn, polyester POY, DTY, FDY, nylon DTY, FDY, and POY—were unchanged week-on-week. This sideways movement is not stability but a standoff between buyers and sellers over peak-season expectations versus actual orders.
Industrial Transmission: Hidden Concerns Beneath Strong Year-on-Year Growth
Looking only at year-on-year figures, the market appears robust. Polyester staple fiber is up 35.44%, PTA up 59.46%, polyester POY up 36.19%, polyester FDY up 37.36%, nylon POY up 38.88%, and acrylonitrile up 35.07%. Most chemical fiber categories show gains exceeding 30%, historically a strong level.
However, the base effect cannot be ignored. In the same period of 2025, the textile industry was in the late stage of destocking, with raw material prices generally low. Current year-on-year gains largely reflect a "low-base recovery" rather than substantive terminal demand expansion.
From a transmission perspective, the modest rises in PTA and polyester staple fiber have not effectively reached downstream yarn and fabric segments. Polyester yarn, POY, DTY, and FDY all remained flat, suggesting polyester plants are choosing a "price-support and production-cut" strategy amid rising costs and insufficient orders. For downstream weaving enterprises, raw material costs have not fallen significantly, yet finished product price hikes are limited, intensifying margin pressure.
Raw silk rose 0.20% to 445,500 yuan/ton but remains down 4.65% year-on-year—the only negative year-on-year category on the list. This reflects weak terminal silk consumption, with export order recovery lagging behind chemical fiber products. For cotton yarn, 32S and 21S are up 5.52% and 6.04% year-on-year respectively, a moderate pace suggesting relatively smooth cotton cost transmission. However, the gap between cotton lint's 16.92% year-on-year gain and cotton yarn's increase implies squeezed spinning margins.
Regional Industrial Belt Response and Peak Season Quality
Feedback from regional industrial belts such as Keqiao and Shengze—key chemical fiber weaving clusters—shows cautious reactions to flat raw material prices. Some factories report that orders around the National Day holiday are mainly short and urgent, with few large or long-term contracts. Procurement strategies lean toward "buy as needed," with little willingness to build inventory. The Nantong home textile cluster is highly sensitive to cotton yarn prices; the current 32S cotton yarn price of 24,850 yuan/ton puts some pressure on home textile fabric costs, but terminal price hikes remain difficult.
The slight declines in acrylonitrile and cotton lint offer marginal cost relief for acrylic and cotton spinning enterprises, but drops of 0.46% and 0.07% are insufficient to alter the overall cost structure. The real concern is that if acrylonitrile continues to weaken next week, acrylic yarn prices may follow, affecting the quotation system for blended fabrics.
Seasonally, late September to early October is typically a key window for the "Golden September and Silver October" period. But with an average weekly change of just 0.07% and ten categories flat, this year's peak season may prove lackluster. On the export front, Western retailers are restocking slowly, and Southeast Asian competition is diverting some mid-to-low-end orders, leaving Chinese textile enterprises facing pressure on both volume and price.
For buyers, raw material prices are currently range-bound with a cost ceiling and a demand floor, making both chasing rallies and selling into declines risky. For factories, sideways movement locks in processing margins, requiring differentiated products and delivery services to capture premiums. For exporters, currency fluctuations and shipping costs may warrant more attention than raw material prices.