Textile Raw Material Prices Frozen for a Day, Yet Year-on-Year Gains Signal a Cost Restructuring

On October 2, 2026, textile commodity prices presented a rare scene: the number of gainers and losers both dropped to zero, with the daily change frozen at 0%. Yet when the lens shifts to year-on-year terms, 16 out of 17 monitored products recorded positive growth. PTA led with a 59.46% annual gain, followed by nylon POY at 38.88% and polyester FDY at 37.36%. This divergence—daily stagnation against annual surges—is a classic signal of a restructuring cost center in the supply chain.

Structural Divergence Behind the Data

In absolute terms, cotton lint stood at 17,408.33 yuan/ton, while cotton yarn 21S and 32S held steady at 23,400 yuan/ton and 24,850 yuan/ton, indicating moderated volatility in the cotton spinning chain. However, the chemical fiber segment far outpaced cotton: polyester staple fiber rose 35.44% year-on-year, polyester POY gained 36.19%, nylon DTY climbed 29.83%, and spandex advanced 19.59%. This means weaving enterprises relying primarily on chemical fibers have faced significantly greater cost pressure over the past year than pure cotton spinners.

Raw silk was the sole decliner, with its price of 445,500 yuan/ton down 4.65% from a year earlier. This contrast relates to seasonal fluctuations in silk consumption and structural adjustments in export orders. Viscose staple fiber and spun rayon yarn posted annual gains of 11.13% and 6.97%, respectively, occupying the middle tier and reflecting a moderate release of substitution demand for regenerated cellulose fibers.

Causes and Transmission of the Price Freeze

A single day of zero movement does not mean the market lacks vitality; rather, it results from multiple overlapping factors. During the National Day holiday, spot trading in domestic commodities slowed, with quotes generally carrying over from the previous day. Meanwhile, upstream crude oil and PX prices lacked directional breakthroughs recently, temporarily weakening cost-side momentum for the polyester chain. But the year-on-year data reminds us that PTA's nearly 60% gain over the past year has been fully transmitted to polyester filament and staple fiber, systematically elevating the raw material cost base for weaving.

For downstream fabric factories, the current price plateau offers a brief window for price locking. If crude oil rebounds or PTA maintenance season arrives early, polyester prices could strengthen again. What buyers must watch is that inventory costs for high year-on-year gainers are now markedly higher than last year. If end-use apparel orders struggle to raise prices, profit margins will be further squeezed.

Differentiated Responses Across Regional Clusters

Chemical fiber weaving hubs such as Keqiao and Shengze are particularly sensitive to polyester and nylon prices. With raw material gains exceeding 30% year-on-year, local enterprises specializing in polyester FDY and DTY face a higher probability of year-on-year gross margin contraction if they cannot transfer costs through product upgrades or order repricing. By contrast, the Nantong home textile cluster focuses more on cotton yarn prices, where 21S and 32S yarns rose only 6.04% and 5.52% annually, keeping cost pressure relatively manageable.

Exporters face another layer of challenges: while raw silk's annual decline lowers material costs for silk products, exchange rate fluctuations and shipping cost uncertainty in overseas orders may offset this advantage. Acrylonitrile's 35.07% annual gain directly raises production costs for acrylic and carbon fiber precursors, requiring a recalculation of export quotes for related specialty textiles.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - For polyester POY, FDY, and DTY with annual gains exceeding 30%, prioritize quarterly price locks or分批 procurement with suppliers to avoid chasing highs. - Watch the weak window in raw silk prices; silk product manufacturers may moderately increase raw material stocking, but must simultaneously assess the sustainability of end-use orders. - Include viscose staple fiber and spun rayon yarn in alternative evaluations, as their annual gains sit in the low-to-mid range, allowing blended products to optimize cost structures.

For Factories - Chemical fiber weavers should accelerate product differentiation, reduce sole reliance on conventional polyester filament, and enhance bargaining power through functional fabrics. - Cotton spinners can leverage the relatively stable cotton yarn price window to sign medium-to-long-term supply agreements with downstream apparel clients, locking in processing profits. - Establish a year-on-year raw material price early-warning mechanism that automatically triggers cost recalculation and quote adjustment processes when annual gains exceed 20%.