A single day of zero price movement is often read as market calm, but behind the flat trading on October 2, 2026, year-on-year data paints a picture of broadly elevated costs across the textile sector. Every monitored commodity showed a daily change of 0%, yet PTA was up 59.46% year-on-year, polyester staple fiber up 35.44%, nylon POY up 38.88%, and acrylonitrile up 35.07%. These figures indicate that the current price plateau sits far above where it was a year ago. For buyers, flat daily prices are not a signal to relax—they signal that cost rigidity has become entrenched.
Cost Rigidity Revealed by Year-on-Year Gains
Looking upstream, PTA's near-60% annual increase has directly pushed up the pricing center for the entire polyester chain. Polyester POY, DTY, and FDY rose 36.19%, 31.11%, and 37.36% year-on-year respectively, with the three moving in close alignment—evidence that cost pass-through in the polyester segment is relatively smooth. Acrylonitrile's 35.07% annual gain supports the nylon chain, where DTY, FDY, and POY all posted year-on-year increases above 26%, with POY leading at 38.88%. This reflects persistent tightness in precursor materials such as caprolactam.
Cotton-related raw materials performed more moderately. Cotton lint rose 16.92% year-on-year, while cotton yarn 21S and 32S increased 6.04% and 5.52% respectively. The gap between lint and yarn gains is notable: spinning margins are being squeezed, and mills are struggling to pass the full raw material cost downstream to weaving. Viscose staple fiber rose 11.13% year-on-year, with rayon yarn up 6.97%, showing the same pattern of raw materials outpacing yarn. Spandex gained 19.59% annually, supported by steady demand for stretch fabrics.
The sole decliner was raw silk, down 4.65% year-on-year. This divergence deserves attention: while synthetic and cotton materials broadly rose, raw silk weakened, potentially reflecting soft end-consumer demand for silk products or contracting export orders. For weavers using raw silk, short-term cost pressure has eased, but the risk of demand shrinkage behind the price decline warrants caution.
Transmission Logic Behind the Flat Prices
A single day of zero change does not mean the market lacks direction. During the National Day holiday, commodity trading activity declines and quotes typically carry over from the previous session—a technical flatline in statistical terms. But the broad year-on-year gains show that textile raw materials have undergone a systemic upward repricing over the past year, with current prices sitting at relatively high levels.
From an upstream-downstream perspective, cost pass-through is fairly complete in the polyester and nylon chains, while the yarn segment of cotton and viscose chains has absorbed substantial costs, compressing profit margins. This asymmetry means that if downstream demand weakens, yarn mills will face greater operational pressure. For traders, the high year-on-year base in current quotes challenges export price competitiveness. Dollar-denominated orders, in particular, face compounded margin pressure from both raw material costs and currency fluctuations.
Regarding regional industrial belts, chemical fiber fabric enterprises in Keqiao are most directly affected by polyester and nylon price increases. The weaving cluster in Shengze bears simultaneous cost pressure from both polyester and cotton yarn. Nantong home textile enterprises, which rely primarily on cotton and polyester, will see lint and polyester staple fiber gains gradually translate into finished product price pressure.
Impact Assessment for Procurement and Production
At current price levels, buyers need to reassess annual procurement budgets. Take polyester POY: a 36.19% year-on-year increase means costs rise by more than a third for the same volume. If end-product selling prices cannot adjust accordingly, margin erosion is unavoidable. For factories, raw material inventory management becomes critical. At a high plateau, overstocking risks a subsequent correction, while understocking may mean missing orders.
Exporters should monitor two variables: RMB exchange rate movements and overseas customers' willingness to accept price increases. If raw material costs remain elevated while the exchange rate is unfavorable, export margins could narrow further. Exporters are advised to include raw material price adjustment clauses in quotes or shorten quote validity periods to reduce exposure.