The global textile sentiment balance rose from its previous low to -23 percentage points. At first glance this looks like a recovery signal, but it remains in negative territory, meaning the industry is experiencing sentiment repair rather than a fundamental rebound. South Asia and Africa are the only two positive regions, while Europe, North America and Central America remain deeply negative. East Asia and Southeast Asia, as traditional manufacturing bases, also show cautious expectations. For Chinese fabric enterprises, this divergence directly determines that export destination priorities need to be reordered.
Weak Global Recovery: Strong at Both Ends, Weak in the Middle
The profit distribution across the supply chain is clearly dumbbell-shaped. Demand for green differentiated products such as recycled fibers and bio-based fibers is more resilient, while spinning, dyeing and finishing, and textile machinery enterprises are under obvious pressure, with the dyeing segment at the bottom of the sentiment ranking. The core reason is that downstream brands are conservative in capital expenditure and unwilling to invest in new equipment, leaving mid-stream processing segments with weaker bargaining power.
The order side is equally unoptimistic. The global new orders index improved slightly but remains in negative territory. Average order backlog is only 2.3 months, and capacity utilization is 71%, far below pre-pandemic levels. The six-month expectation balance rose to +19 percentage points, but 46% of surveyed companies expect conditions to remain basically unchanged, and optimistic expectations lack support from long-cycle, large-volume orders.
The top three risks are weak demand (56%), raw material price volatility (42%), and rising energy costs (41%). This means factories must treat raw material procurement pacing and energy cost locking as front-end profit management actions rather than after-the-fact remedies.
The Keqiao Sample: The Short-Order Logic Behind Rising Inquiries
After the National Day holiday, customer flow at China Textile City gradually recovered. Inquiries were concentrated in woolen, brushed fabric, warm elastic fabrics, and outdoor functional fabrics. Domestic apparel brands, e-commerce customers, and secondary wholesalers came to view samples, send samples, and run trials. But the activity is concentrated in samples and small orders; large-volume orders remain hard to find.
Customer ordering logic has shifted to trial sales and on-demand replenishment. Small orders of tens or hundreds of meters continue to rise in share, while long and large orders are scarce. Conventional fabrics face severe internal competition, with quoted prices under pressure and thin margins. Differentiated fabrics with functional, recycled, or special texture features enjoy more stable inquiries and relatively ample room for price negotiation. For factories, this means product structure matters more than capacity scale, and greige preparation and production must follow on-demand scheduling to avoid inventory buildup.
Domestic and export divergence is also evident. Domestic customers focus on autumn/winter new arrivals, with high sampling frequency and fast delivery requirements. Export buyers are more cautious; European and American customers order conservatively and split orders noticeably, while requirements for environmental certification, chemical control, and carbon-related documentation continue to rise. Many export traders are actively turning to Belt and Road, Southeast Asian, and African markets to hedge against weak European and American demand.
Weaving and dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have not quickly ramped up utilization after the holiday. Enterprises mainly schedule production on demand and dare not prepare greige or launch large-scale production in advance. This aligns with the ITMF survey finding that companies are unwilling to expand production. Keqiao traders have proactively reduced low-value conventional fabric stock and increased reserves of recycled and functional fabrics, leveraging the Keqiao quality infrastructure one-stop platform to improve testing and certification capabilities and meet overseas green compliance requirements.
Outlook: Structural Market and Compliance Costs in Parallel
In the coming six months, there will be no full recovery in the global textile industry. The recovery will be slow and uneven. South Asia and Africa will continue to release capacity dividends. European and American end demand will remain weak, and green compliance costs will continue to rise. Traditional manufacturing regions will face persistent order pressure. The domestic market will continue structural trends, with periodic recovery in autumn/winter fabric inquiries, but order fragmentation and short-order patterns will not change.
For buyers, supplier compliance qualifications and rapid replenishment capability should become core screening indicators. For export enterprises, market diversification and front-loaded certification are key to reducing policy risks. The focus of industry competition is shifting from price to compliance capability and product differentiation.