The global textile business sentiment balance has recovered from its earlier low to -23 percentage points. On the surface this reads as improvement, but it remains deep in contraction territory. The key message from the 40th ITMF Global Textile Industry Survey is not a rebound but a marginal repair in sentiment. Two other figures matter more: average order backlog stands at just 2.3 months and capacity utilization at 71%, both well below pre-pandemic norms. This means order flow is insufficient to keep mills running at full capacity, and buyers retain the stronger bargaining position.
Divergence Is the Real Story
By region, South Asia and Africa are the only areas showing positive sentiment in this survey round. Yarn and garment capacity continues to shift toward these two regions, making them the primary engines of global textile growth. Europe, North America and Central America show sharply negative readings, with brand-side destocking not yet finished and weak end-consumer demand directly suppressing replenishment cycles. East Asia and Southeast Asia, as traditional manufacturing bases, also hold cautious outlooks. For Chinese exporters, the implication is direct: European and American orders are unlikely to see volume breakthroughs in the short term, and incremental space is concentrated in emerging markets.
The supply chain continues to show strength at both ends and weakness in the middle. Demand for green differentiated products such as recycled and bio-based fibers is relatively resilient, while midstream segments including spinning, dyeing and finishing, and textile machinery face notable pressure, with the dyeing sector at the bottom of the sentiment ranking. The root cause is conservative capital expenditure by downstream brands, reluctance to invest in new equipment, weak bargaining power among midstream processors, and simultaneous cost pressure from raw materials, energy and environmental compliance. For midstream mills still focused on commodity fabrics, margin compression is almost inevitable.
Post-Holiday Market in Keqiao
After the National Day holiday, foot traffic at China Textile City in Shaoxing gradually recovered, and autumn/winter fabrics entered their purchasing window. Inquiries rose noticeably for woolen, brushed, thermal stretch and outdoor functional fabrics, with domestic apparel brands, e-commerce clients and secondary wholesalers coming in to view samples, send samples and run trials. But the activity is concentrated in samples and small orders, while large-volume orders remain hard to find.
The current ordering logic centers on test sales and on-demand replenishment. Small lots of tens to hundreds of meters continue to rise in share, while long-run and large orders are scarce. Commodity fabrics face severe internal competition, with quoted prices under pressure and thin margins. Differentiated fabrics with functional, recycled or special texture features see more stable inquiries and relatively ample room for price negotiation. This is effectively a screening mechanism: merchants with homogeneous products are forced to accept low prices, while those with development capability can still protect gross margins.
Domestic and export divergence is equally clear. Domestic clients focus on autumn/winter launches with high sampling frequency and fast delivery requirements. Export buyers are more cautious, with European and American clients ordering conservatively and splitting orders noticeably, while requirements for environmental certification, chemical control and carbon-related documentation continue to rise. Many export merchants are actively pivoting to Belt and Road, Southeast Asian and African markets to offset weak Western demand. Weaving and dyeing operations remain cautious, with Jiangsu and Zhejiang mills not rushing to full capacity after the holiday, scheduling production on demand and avoiding advance greige stockpiling or large-scale investment.
Risks and Outlook
The survey lists three core risks in order: weak demand (56%), raw material price volatility (42%) and rising energy costs (41%). At the same time, green compliance regulations in Europe and the US are landing密集ly, with carbon footprint verification, green claims substantiation and anti-fast-fashion rules continuously raising export thresholds. For export-oriented enterprises, compliance capability is shifting from a bonus item to an entry ticket. Some Keqiao merchants have already leveraged the quality infrastructure one-stop platform to improve testing and certification capacity, and the necessity of this move will only increase.
Over the next six months, there will be no comprehensive recovery in global textiles. The rebound will be slow and uneven. South Asia and Africa will continue to release capacity dividends; European and American end demand will remain weak with green compliance costs rising; traditional manufacturing regions will continue to face order pressure. The domestic market will maintain a structural行情, with periodic inquiry recovery in autumn/winter fabrics, but the characteristics of fragmented and short-cycle orders will not change. For buyers, supply-side overcapacity means lead times and prices still have room for negotiation. For mills, whether they can handle small-batch quick-response orders and provide compliance documentation will determine where orders land in the coming半年.