The global textile industry is in a phase of "sentiment repair" rather than "fundamental reversal." The International Textile Manufacturers Federation (ITMF)'s 40th Global Textile Industry Survey (GTIS) puts the business sentiment balance at -23 percentage points. Although this marks a clear improvement from earlier lows, it remains deep in contraction territory. This reading means there is no basis for a full recovery in the next six months; the rebound will be slow and highly uneven.
Global Divergence: South Asia and Africa Stand Alone, Midstream Under Pressure
Regionally, South Asia and Africa are the only areas with positive sentiment, continuously absorbing yarn and garment capacity transfers and becoming the current growth engine for global textiles. Europe, North America, and Central America show significantly negative readings, with weak end-consumer demand and brands continuing to destock. East Asia and Southeast Asia, as traditional manufacturing bases, also hold cautious expectations.
The supply chain continues to show a "strong at both ends, weak in the middle" pattern. Demand for green differentiated products such as recycled fibers and bio-based fibers is more resilient. The midstream is under notable pressure, with spinning, dyeing and finishing, and textile machinery enterprises struggling; the dyeing and finishing segment ranks at the bottom in sentiment. The core reason is that downstream brands are conservative in capital expenditure, unwilling to invest in new equipment, leaving midstream processing with weak bargaining power as raw material, energy, and environmental costs squeeze profit margins.
On the order side, the global new orders index improved slightly but remains in negative territory. The global average order backlog is only 2.3 months, and capacity utilization is 71%, far below pre-pandemic levels. The six-month expectation balance rebounded to +19 percentage points, but 46% of surveyed companies expect conditions to remain basically unchanged. Optimism lacks support from long-cycle, large-volume orders. The global market is generally dominated by small-batch, short-lead-time replenishment orders. Companies are reluctant to expand production, prioritizing inventory control and customer retention over blind capacity addition.
Keqiao Market Reality: Rising Inquiries Amid Short and Fragmented Orders
In China's core fabric hub, the China Textile City in Shaoxing, post-holiday market conditions echo the global trend. After the National Day holiday, customer flow gradually recovered. Autumn and winter fabrics entered the procurement window, with increased inquiries for woolen, brushed, warm elastic, and outdoor functional fabrics. Domestic apparel brands, e-commerce clients, and secondary wholesalers came to view samples, send samples, and run trials.
However, the bustle is concentrated in samples and small orders; large-volume orders remain elusive. The current ordering logic is mainly trial sales and on-demand replenishment. Small orders of tens or hundreds of meters continue to rise in proportion, while long-term and large orders are scarce—a typical "small orders, quick response" model. Conventional fabrics face severe internal competition, with quoted prices under pressure and thin profits. Differentiated fabrics with functionality, recycled content, or special textures see more stable inquiries and relatively ample room for price negotiation.
The divergence between domestic and export trade is also evident in Keqiao. Domestic clients focus on autumn/winter new arrivals, with high sampling frequency and fast delivery requirements. Export buyers are more cautious; European and American clients order conservatively and split orders significantly, while their requirements for environmental certification, chemical control, and carbon-related documentation continue to rise. Many export merchants are actively turning to "Belt and Road" markets, Southeast Asia, and Africa to offset weak demand from Europe and the US.
Weaving and dyeing operations also remain cautious. Textile and dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have not ramped up capacity quickly after the holiday. Companies schedule production on demand, avoiding early greige stockpiling or large-scale production, consistent with the global finding in the ITMF survey that "companies are unwilling to expand." Many Keqiao merchants have proactively adjusted strategies, reducing low-value conventional fabric inventory and increasing reserves of recycled and functional fabrics. They are leveraging the Keqiao quality infrastructure one-stop platform to improve testing and certification capabilities and adapt to overseas green compliance requirements.
Risks and Responses: Green Compliance Becomes a New Export Barrier
The survey identifies the top three industry risks as weak demand (56%), raw material price volatility (42%), and rising energy costs (41%). Combined with the dense rollout of new green compliance regulations in Europe and the US, carbon footprint verification, environmental claim substantiation, and anti-fast-fashion legislation are continuously raising export barriers. This means that if buyers and exporters still rely on low-price conventional fabrics for volume, profit margins will be further compressed, and they may even face order losses due to compliance risks.
For factories, on-demand scheduling and inventory control are short-term survival rules, but in the medium to long term, they must seek premiums through differentiation and greenization. For buyers, supply chain stability and compliance qualifications now matter more than simple price comparisons.